MCS Sunday?


This may throw a big wrench into the forecasts calling for 80’s and sunny. The NAM is most interest but appears to be the further southwest with a MCS in the morning. For now will only adjust temps down slightly for Sunday as a mix of clouds may keep highs around 80 or in the 70’s for many instead of in the 80’s. As for Actual storm chances I’m not buying into a morning thunderstorm complex, however tendency is the modeling is often to far north so we’ll see. I do think a MCS thunderstorm complex will track across northern KY Sunday night with gusty winds.

12:00 AM Sunday update: Still think MCS’s to our north keep it cloudy the HRRR now along the NAM show a thunderstorm cluster for the bluegrass and northern KY regions in the morning. This matches up with some of the meteorological analysis I have done. However I’m just not sold the cluster of the storms can maintain strength into our region. Usually i would like to see a stronger LLJ coming into play with an overnight MCS/ thunderstorm event. Still looking at a second MCS Sunday night with a severe threat mainly I-64 north. The 00z NAM sounding from Lexington was very favorable for severe weather.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: