Pattern slowly changing, 1976 analog in play!

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We’re seeing the first signs of a pattern change this week. Through the first half of April The mean ridge shifts to the central plains which may allow for backdoor coldfronts into the east. Meaning we should be closer to normal but still above normal.

1. The upper low moves east Sunday with clearing after lows near 50 highs should be in the 60’s regionwide with some low 70’s south and west.

2. Monday and Tuesday a dry backdoor front tries to clip the region with it a blast of more march like air heads into the northeast. Some clouds in addition to a large temp spread across the region. Lows should be near 50 Monday with highs in the 60’s to low 70’s. Tuesday lows may be in the 40’s for some with highs in the 60’s to 70’s. Could be a nice 20*F temp difference across KY. The exact track of the front and airmass clash may still lead to changes with the temps, cooler NE warmer SW.

3. Wednesday another front moves southeast into the region with a chance of showers and storms. Instability looks favorable for strong to severe storms yet again. Good news is that instability and not system dynamics will be the main driver. Steep lapse rates and moderate CAPE values may promote storms with a damaging wind and hail threat. A lot of this will depend on morning convection along the front as well. lows in the 50’s and highs in the mid to upper 70’s.

4. We’ll finish march over 10*F above normal. 1976 was a year where a multi-year la-nina turned into a week el-nino as currently projected for this year. Look at March of 1976. Looks similar to this year?

Summer 76 was slightly cooler than normal then came the winter of 76-77.

umm. we shall see.

In terms of computer modeling here is a good read on how the US lacks in this field and why 9 times out of 10 I pick the EC.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/03/us-fallen-behind-in-numerical-weather.html?spref=fb

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2 Responses to “Pattern slowly changing, 1976 analog in play!”

  1. mitch Says:

    http://www.ca.uky.edu/news/?c=n&d=1023 this goes back to a post on the similar spring pattern to 2007 last week.

  2. mitch Says:

    Going a little lower with lows based of off dewpoints for the north and east tonight could be some mid to upper 30’s as well. Frost adv lexington and northeast.

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