Warm weather continues

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and my grass is growing out of control for March! I was in Louisville Thursday and Saturday for the UK and WKU basketball games this weekend and was not able to update much.

A thunderstorm came Thursday about half an hour before tip of the UK/WKU game and a gradual entrance of people in the YUM center turned into this.

Overall the storms produced hail as advertised in the mid week update. The main contributor is a sharp temperature difference in height often referred to as  steep lapse rates.

Why the warmth?

The MJO is strongly in phase 6 this corresponds to well below normal temps in the west and well above normal temps centered in our region. This MJO pulse is casuing unusual weather patterns throughout many regions including Hawaii. More on the MJO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

For Today (Sunday).

Once again the atmosphere is becoming unstable and I expect scattered storms to fire in the next few hours with a hail threat.

1. Monday and Tuesday will be very warm and mostly sunny. Lows Monday will be in the 50’s for most with afternoon highs approaching 80 Monday and into the 80’s Tuesday. I still can;t rule an isolated storm. Though Tuesday A little more in the way of a ridge may suppress storm formation. South wind of 5-10 mph.

2. Wednesday will be another with a mix of sun and clouds lows will be near 60 with highs near 80. Winds will increase to 10-15 mph.

3. My main concern for next week is the approach of a closed off upper air system by Friday. This system will provide another chance for steep lapse rates and promote hail with any storms. Like the ECMWF version of this system.

4. Don;t expect this warmth to last the MJO pulse will die and the mean ridge should retreat into the Rockies with a trough over the northeast. 2007 featured a similar march to this one in terms of warmth opening day at Keeneland and it was a total flip of the pattern. As of now I don’t think it will be close to this extreme but seasonal chill is not done yet.

 

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One Response to “Warm weather continues”

  1. Marsha Says:

    Mitch do you think the storms friday will have tornados with them

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