Forecast for the week

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First off don’t leave spam comments. This takes away what time I have to spend on updating this site about Kentucky weather. That is why There is now a $50 fee for each spam comment. Those who leave comments weather related are OK and will not be impacted this is about 99% of people reading this. The $50 Fee only impacts those who leave spam about what junk they are selling. I delete a handful of these every day. The fee money will be donated to the red cross to help with tornado relief. Also I will donate based on hits to the site Wednesday 25 cents per visit to the site. I’m a college student on leave without pay status at the NWS, making my income on the lower side.

I feel the forecasts provided during the outbreak Friday were as close to spot on as i could get. However I also think the weather channel’s torcon really send the message home for some in the public. maybe a 1-10 scale would work over spc prob forecasts. something for the nws assessment team.  Also today’s forecast difference pointed out last Monday with the NWS was a blowout win for a high in Bowling green my forecast from 7 days ago was 47 the nws 57 7 days ago. today’s high was 48. You win some and you loose some, I may very well be on the losing end of the next forecast difference. The objective of this was make a point not to look at guidance but the overall pattern, a nw flow under a trough rarely get you to 60 in the first week of March in KY.

1. For the snow covered regions I expect some patchy freezing fog to form overnight. lows will be near 20 with the snowcover and in the mid 20’s to around 30 outside of the snowcover.

2. Tuesday skies will be sunny with some southerly flow. I expect a quick warm-up. Those with no snow will have highs from the upper 50’s to mid 60’s. Others will have a melting snow cover with highs in the 50’s. snow depths should be reduced to 1 inch.

3. Another sunny day Wednesday with southerly flow lows will range from the mid 30’s to upper 40’s. Highs will be in the 60’s. All snow will have melted.

4. A split flow pattern evolves by mid-week with a cut-off low over the sesert southwest and a front moving across the great lakes. Increasing clouds Wednesday night and southwest winds may keep temps in the 50’s.

5. The cut-off low forms a low over the Arkansas region Thursday. Severe weather stays south of our region since the low track is south. However periods of rain are likely from Thursday afternoon into Friday. Temperatures Thursday should rise into the 60’s before falling into the 40’s early Friday with highs in the 50’s on Friday.

6. Low level cold drills in by Saturday morning lows may be in the 20’s or low 30’s. Our frontal boundary moves south of the region, the most likely case is what the models are showing a sunny cold day Saturday. However I would not be surprised to see a secondary low along the front make a run at the region with a freezing rain/rain mix.

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