Another long hard day Friday of severe storms

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This has the looks of a major severe weather event in the region for Friday afternoon and evening. A strong surge of moisture and instability will once again move northward through the region Friday afternoon with dewpoints over 60*F and Convective alivable potential energy (CAPE) values from 1000-1500 J/KG by late afternoon. A warm front will push through in the morning with the LLJ interacting with the warm front will produce some showers and storms in the morning from north to south with clearing by midday.  Similar to the last event shear parameters will be more than sufficient for a severe threat.

The Bowling Green region has the best chance to reach the higher CAPE values of around 1500 J/KG. The higher CAPE values coupled with steeping lapse rates will promote an enviroment capable of having storms producing large hail.

Storm motions will be very quick as well coupled with a strong upper level jet moving through damaging winds will be a widespread threat.

By early afternoon scattered supercells will develop over Western Kentucky and move toward I-65 around mid-afternoon. These scattered supercells will have hail cores and hook echos as well more than likely. Tornadoes may be found in the hook echos.  These supercells will organize into a linear fashion by evening with the overall main threat evolving into damaging winds. Like with the squall line on Wednesday any storm along it may develop rotation with little notice though the strongest tornadoes should be with any supercells.

Forecast by city

BG/ Campbelsville/e-town/Louisville

– scattered supercells for mid-afternoon/early evening

– line of storms in the evening

– upgrade to high risk by SPC possible.

Somerset/Lexington/Covington/Jackson

– isolated supercells late afternoon

-squall line in the evening

My main concern is from the late afternoon supercells. However the squall line will have widespread severe weather.  The best chance of having a bust with this event is from morning showers and storms limiting instability. I don’t think that will be to much of a limiting factor. I will comment below on storms but again similar to Wednesday won’t post every warning below only areas where I see severe weather ongoing. Also I have other duties as well to this site and may not be able to comment on every storm, don’t wait on my word to seek shelter should you be warned.

By the way I’m liking the chances of winning the forecast battle for Monday with 47 over 57 for the NWS had on day 7. In fact the 12z EC has me to warm with a high around 45 for BG. I also like the idea of a snow swath tracking along I-64 with an inch of snow perhaps 2 in portions of east KY confined to grassy surfaces for those who have the bulk of precip fall around sunrise. Quite a turnround from this week.

 

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One Response to “Another long hard day Friday of severe storms”

  1. james Says:

    Any possible comparison to April 3rd 1974? Hearing some talk of that.

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