Squall line likely Thursday night

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I expect A squall line of thunderstorms to develop over southern Indiana and west KY late Thursday afternoon and early evening. This line of showers and storms should move east across the region with ample moisture in place.  Damaging winds will be the main threat as the LLJ will be over 50 kts. Steep lapse rates will also add to the marginal CAPE values of around 500 J/KG, so I do think instability will be present for severe storms. Shear values will be sufficient for isolated tornadoes particularly the further north you go. I’ll do my best to cover the event with a few shorter updates over the course of the next day. A concern is that some convective inhibition may be present until the early evening, meaning the storms will not form at the peak heating hours. The storms should diminish as they get into far eastern Ky.

timing

Bowling Green, Louisville 6-9 pm

Lexington, Covington, Somerset 8-11 pm

East Ky- after 10 pm

rainfall amounts will be light and the storms should form over the region, so radar may be dry for most of the afternoon.

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