Where to go from Here?


It’s been a long week of back and forth for most of us as wobbles in the forecast track of the upper low led to a forecast that changed up till the end. I drove southeast into northern TN today and only 45 minutes from my house in BG over 2 inches of snow was on the ground. Of course I stayed and enjoyed the snow for a while but within a 10 mile stretch the side of the road went from nothing to pretty snow covered quick. I feel good in getting out that convection could and was a major negative in getting a more pronounced snow event.

I’m also going to request that all comments are constructive and professional. While we didn’t have any major issues with the last storm we all can get a little tense when dealing with bigger systems that move though our region but please keep the request in mind.

1. Monday skies will be mostly sunny with the storm to our east. After lows in the 20’s highs should rebound into the mid 40’s to low 50’s. Some areas with snowcover may be cooler.

2. Tuesday a week system will pass to the north bringing with it a period of clouds and light showers of rain and perhaps even freezing rain in the morning for a few locations in eastern KY. Skies should clear out in the afternoon. Lows will be in the 30’s with highs in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s. Winds could increase as well perhaps to around 15 mph.

3. Wednesday will be dry with lows in the mid and upper 30’s and highs around 60. Thursday will see another frontal system come into the region. I’m in agreement with the aggressive warm and moist advection into the region on the ECMWF. I don’t think temps fall much Wednesday night and with increasing southerly winds highs should soar well into the 60’s. The moisture advection may yield the presence of instability along the next frontal boundary. Perhaps a squall line event Thursday night if ample moisture moves into the region.

4. Behind this front should be a another quick cool shot perhaps even some rain and snow showers by Saturday.

5. This back and forth pattern should continue into the 10-14 day period as well. Frontal systems may move through with rain and storms then stall to our south allowing for snow chances with what quick cool shots we get. the MJO is favorable with neutral teleconnections these next few weeks will be a more typical la-nina pattern and not a blowtorch. Keep in mind the la-nina pattern overall is warm but does provide some winter chances.


4 Responses to “Where to go from Here?”

  1. lipper Says:

    I once lived in BG. It was SO frustrating in the winter. Seemed like this latest storm track was the norm in the late80’s thru mid 90’s while I was there. I even remember times when Nashville would get an inch or two and it would be raining in BG, while Somerset would get 6-12″. Once again Mitch thx for your work.

  2. lipper Says:

    Mitch can you post a link for a snowfall average map for KY. I can’t find one.

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