Convective Feedback concern

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My concern over convection spoiling the party is increasing. The 12z NAM does not have much convection and you can see how aggressive it is with the snow. The 12z CMC and GFS however have a large region of thunderstorms over the southeast which makes for a lot less moisture riding northeast with the upper low. I’m making minor tweaks to the snow map from yesterday. Lexington is now in the 1-2 region along with Maysville and Versailles. Louisville and Shelbyville have also been bumped up to 0-1.  There is very little margin of error and the model spread is quite large as we head to the finish line. The 12z NAM has corrected from it’s 00z in terms of the upper air look,however the increasing concern of convection over the gulf coast keep me from going higher with totals. Also the NAM qpf is likely to aggressive.

 

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16 Responses to “Convective Feedback concern”

  1. mitch Says:

    likely to merge 1-2 and 2-4 bands into a 1-3 then go 3-6 for the southeast with locally higher totals. Edge of 1-3 from Bowling green to lexington. This after seeing 12z EC very close to GFS without the feedback issues.

  2. Marsha Says:

    There is always something why do we have these model I remember back growing up in the 70,s they didn’t,t have computer model they hit the forecast so much better why are we the tax payer paying for this junk we can’t take any forecast because you all get it wrong have to wait right up until its here to know what it’s goin to so then you all still miss it it’s just unreal…

  3. trent Says:

    convection not a factor especially since the sun isnt out down south and thunderstorms exploding.. radar down south shows very thin line of storms. with most solid shield of rain.. temp bust today for most in ky got 48 here in london. was forecasted 58.. nws jkl says new trend of models showing temp drop sooner than expected

    • lipper Says:

      48 your butt. Was low- mid 50’s at all reporting stations in Ky underground in London today. Sorry I had to call you out on that.

    • mitch Says:

      The highs today were in the mid 50’s officially in the London region. Would not call that a bust. I’m assuming though 48 is the current temp.

      • lipper Says:

        I will quote him. ” got 48 here in london. was forecasted 58″ I do appreciate your work/passion Mitch but why don’t you guys go out a little futher on the limb? It’s your blog have fun with it man. Make some educated total predictions 3 days ahead. I will be more respectful to your site from now on.

  4. lipper Says:

    Agree Marsha. It’s science and we all know science is exact. You have these ingredients(wind,moisture,temperature, etc etc.) here is what happens next. I don’t understand why its not an exact science let alone how these geeks can’t predict snow amounts even 10 minutes before it happens.

  5. Marsha Says:

    I don’t mean anything bad toward you Mitch it’s just we can’t get a forecast this close without every few minutes something changes man why can’t these model get this

  6. lipper Says:

    Sorry Lexington 1″ is my call. SE KY going to make bank on this storm. Somerset 3″Jackson 6″, Pikeville 8″,

  7. lipper Says:

    < Is an armchair meteorologist, but better than Tom Kinny.

  8. lipper Says:

    Tom Kenny

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