Morning Thoughts

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After looking at the 12z runs I have two big keys to the storm. The first is the track of the upper low right now it appears to be across northern TN into southeast KY. This is where the heaviest precipitation/snow will fall. I could still see this shifting north in the next day.
2. Convective feedback over the south is a big concern thunderstorms can take away our moisture which means less snow.

The current upper low track is favorable for 6 or more inches for Somerset, PIkeville, Ashland and perhaps even Jackson.
The buffer will be to the northwest which includes Bowling Green and Lexington say 2-6 inches.
By the time you get to Louisville and Cincy very little will fall.
Snow should only fall for about 12 hours and rates of an inch an hour are very possibile.

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6 Responses to “Morning Thoughts”

  1. mitch Says:

    12z CMC similar to US models.

  2. mitch Says:

    12z ECMWF us much further south and barely scrapes southeast KY with some snow.

  3. lipper Says:

    Come on man keep us updated on forecast totals. Have some ballz bro.

  4. mitch Says:

    00Z NAM: I don’t think the NAM is correct the vort max is to sheared out by Sunday morning and the upper air pattern argues for it to come further north. Surface Low also should be farther north Sunday than Southern Georgia.

  5. marsha Says:

    so mitch do you still think we here in morgan co will get some good snows?

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