First Map out

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– In my view the meteorology argues the 00z CMC/GFS/JMA solution to be closest to correct. The 500 mb height pattern features ridging/rising heights over the southeast. This usually means systems tend to track more northeasterly not due east as the NAM/ECMWF (12z Fri) have it. The NAM and ECMWF also have shown this solution.

I will point even a slight error in track with the upper low will change snow amounts. I still expect those who see snow see a period of rain to start early Sunday morning. Sunday will be snowy for some. Until an inch of snow is on the ground ratios will be 5:1 due to warm ground.

The black line is the upper low track. The CMC is far more bullish on QPF further north which is something to watch.

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5 Responses to “First Map out”

  1. mitch Says:

    The NAM and ECMWF also have shown this northern solution at times.

  2. lipper Says:

    This forecast is the generic “classic” for SE KY.

  3. Tom Says:

    You think a 5:1 ratio just initially then lighter snows afterward?

  4. lipper Says:

    My money says it will track farther South.

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