warm layer just above surface winning out

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WAA has brought in warm air tonight. A bit warmer than expected throughout the day which is also causing for slightly drier air as well. The result is widespread virga, precipitation not hitting the ground.

As a result qpf  amounts are lighter than expected with only  a few hundredths at most mesonet sites. Also radar echos are increasing in DBZ this means the warm layer is causing sleet.

My accumulation now is dropping the inch or less regionwide to o-coatings. A few people may see half an inch. Still a few slick spots Tuesday morning can be found but the kids need to get ready for school Tuesday. The warm layer has been unkind to those in need of a snow day.

1. Tuesday I expect clouds and light rain showers to linger any mixed precip changes to rain early. Highs will be in the low to mid 40’s with a south wind around 10 mph.

2. Wednesday we should see some clearing as high pressure moves over early then increasing clouds late. This means a relaxing of the south wind Tuesday night before picking up from 10-20 mph Wednesday as the high pressure moves east. Lows should be in the lower 30’s across the region with highs from the upper 40’s to 60. Rain is Likely Wednesday night into Thursday.

As I’m typing this sleet is falling outside. Warm layers take away all the fun.

However I’m watching our next chance for snow Saturday night and Sunday. If the branches don’t phase then you get 50 and sunny if they do snow and 30’s!

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4 Responses to “warm layer just above surface winning out”

  1. Seth Says:

    RUC shows dry air busting what wintry precip there is right when it hits the ohio river. In my opinion there is a very decent chance covington may not get anything at all in the form of wintry precipitation, especially with humidity and dew points so low.

    BTW, where in Kentucky in your opinion stands the best chance of getting snow Sat night and Sunday?

  2. mitch Says:

    WAA coming in means RH values drop, dry air. This is pretty much a bust as this post says.

    South and east late Saturday night and Sunday morning. temps will be questionable again.

  3. mitch Says:

    snow threat sunday morning still alive and kickin.

  4. Seth Says:

    Without substansial blocking do you think we have a good shot of that storm trending northwest?

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