Will wait till around noon to make adjustments

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I’m going to wait till around noon Monday to make any adjustments to the snow map I made yesturday. This is  a high confidence forecast for most of the region of light snow Monday night of an inch or less changing to rain Tuesday morning. The exception is the Bowling Green, Campbellsville and Somerset regions. If all snow throughout Monday night 1-2 inches could fall. However the WAA in the upper levels may allow for a transition to sleet and rain overnight.

A few points

– Most places do not get enough precipitation for an inch of snow but could be close

– The areas that see the  highest qpf over .1 will be from BG to Somerset but this is also where WAA will cause a quicker changeover.

-The 18Z GFS sounding from BWG this looks like a case where sleet can mix in as well. Layers of above and below freezing temps cause a melting then some refreezing of the water droplets.

The NAM is to slow bringing precip east though a dry airmass may cause virga at the start. Evaporational cooling will allow temperatures to fall from the mid to low 30’s Monday night. Slick spots are possible Monday night and could give a snow day Tuesday to some!

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