More winter-like this week!

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The long range euro from Thursday shows normal conditions through the middle of the month then goes blowtorch again. However the GFS shows some reasons it may not be that way in the long range. Eventhough the slim hopes for any significant snow are mainly on the 12th timeframe ( I’ll get there a bit). First let’s breakdown the next few days. As for the last forecast totals were around 1/4 to 1/2 inch as the SREF used here showed, so many things can go wrong to get the higher precip totals model produce. This is why I usually like to forecast low on precip amounts.

– Winds overall the next few days should range from around 5-10 mph perhaps a touch higher Tuesday.

1. skies should remain Mostly cloudy Sunday with the upper level system that dumped snow in the plains moves southeast. Leaving in a slight chance for a rain shower as well. Morning lows will range from the mid 30’s to 40’s across the state with highs in the middle 40’s to around 50.

2. I make these forecasts before looking at the NWS and other sources. This should be interesting as we’re in total disagreement on Monday. As of 8 pm Saturday night the NWS is sunny with highs around 50. My forecast however is different thinking the upper level low tracks over the region to continue the chance for a rain or snow shower into the morning hours Monday. Skies should clear in the afternoon from west to east. I do see where the atmosphere does get very dry in the mid levels but enough lift and surface moisture should at least be present to generate clouds into the morning Monday if not precipitation which shows up on the both the ecmwf and gfs models. The ec goes as far .1 qpf monday morning in the southeast. Lows should range from around 30 into the mid 30’s with highs in the mid 40’s to the low 50’s.

GFS

3. Tuesday more sun will be found, perhaps an increase in clouds late ahead of the next shortwave on tap for Wednesday. Lows will range from the upper 20’s to mid 30’s with highs in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s.

4. Watch for one of the few quick cool shots of the season to phase with a system over Texas Friday and track up the east coast around the 12th. I think it is a long shot but might be the only one this winter. We have above normal temps through the middle of the week withe the few days of chill for later in the week which averages to be normal for the whole week by mid month. After this the EC goes warm again while the GFS shows the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) going into phase 8( sign toward more sustained cold) and another stratospheric warming event in the pole regions for the middle of the month. Right now my analogs back the EC weekly product that features warmth after this normal stretch through mid-month.

New analog package, past Feb’s that match up with current overall state. I’ve taken this new analog package through next winter just for fun! This should give you a hint I think el-nino returns.

The overall temperature pattern implies an active severe season across a large portion of the nation to continue through April. The last two are my current analog packages for the summer and next winter. Told ya you would like the one for winter 2012-13! notice the winters in that list!

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One Response to “More winter-like this week!”

  1. mitch Says:

    The 10-12th on the 00z gfs indicates it may not be as far fetched for snow next weekend.

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