More Rain and Thunder by Saturday


– A touch to cool Monday and should have thunder in for Wednesday as well with the showers. Overall not to many issues.

1. Thursday should start off with temps ranging from the upper 30’s north and west to near 50 southeast. clouds should clear throughout the day with highs from the mid 50’s north to low 60’s south. Once again going slightly above model guidance. Overall winds should be light.

2. Friday clouds will increase once again. Our cutter will cut about 100 miles further northwest than I had with snow for CO/KS/NE. Severe weather for the gulf coast states. Texas on Friday near the Red River. Winds should increase out of the south to around 10 mph. Lows should start off in the mid to upper 30’s with highs in the mid 50’s to low 60’s. Rain should develop with elevated thunderstorms ahead of a warm front Friday night.

3. My question for Saturday is do we get into the warm sector across southern KY? Most of the region should showers and rumbles of thunder with temperatures in the 40’s to low 50’s, a few lows in the upper 30’s far northern KY. I’m thinking the south has a shot to see an increase in instability later Saturday this is concerning given a highly sheared environment will be in place and could lead to a strong to severe threat around BG. Right now I’m thinking the threat stays in west TN and the deep south it would not take much shift northwest in the track to cause some instability enough for severe storms later Saturday for the south. As the warm front washes out and pushes north I expect slowly rising temps Saturday night. Winds will increase to about 10-20 mph. Like the SREF rainfall totals from 1/4 to 1/2 inch with locally higher amounts, NAM always overdone and GFS has feedback issues. For now think showers with rumbles of thunder for all but that’s subject to change.

4. This weekend I’ll update on what the groundhog really sees in terms of the next several weeks.


One Response to “More Rain and Thunder by Saturday”

  1. lipper Says:

    You drinking when you typed that ?

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