Long week ahead while I’m Gone

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This is a long forecast given i will be in New Orleans from Saturday through Wednesday for the AMS conference. This means I will not be able to update the several threats this forecast has.

Here is a link to the AMS conference http://annual.ametsoc.org/2012/

Locally there will be a weather conference in February @ the Holiday Inn in Bowling Green. I hope to meet some of you there. A great chance to learn all about weather and meet meteorologists in the region!

http://kyem.ky.gov/Pages/default.aspx

Let’s get to the weather

1. A major bust by almost all meteorologists out there, even had to slap myself silly after missing this one. It only takes a small amount of instability with lots of shear to make a situation very threating. Should have been watching the soundings closer. No watches were issued by the SPC this has happened many times in recent months including my time at NWS-PHL. Severe reports keep coming in and no watch is issued. UMM…..

2. Friday will see a boundary over our region which will lead to dramatically different temps from north to south. Lows will be around 20 in the north and near 30 in the south. Highs Friday in the south may make the low 50’s while only around 30 in the Covington area. Southwest winds will also increase from 10-20 MPH. A low pressure system will track across the region Friday night bringing moisture with it interacting with the boundary and producing light rain known as isentropic lift. Friday night temperatures should rise into the low and mid 50’s south ranging to low and mid 30’s for the north Friday night. Far northern Kentucky may see light freezing rain for a few hours Friday night and this may accumulate under 1/10 th of an inch before changing to rain. The GFS keeps it all freezing rain while the warmer NAM has a very quick change to rain. Overall feel middle ground is good here. Some elevated thunder is possible as well but any instability should stay south of the region.

3. temperatures Saturday are in the 40’s south and 20’s and 30’s north. The precip may end as freezing drizzle for northern and northwestern parts of the region, CVG and LOU. Skies will remain cloudy with lighter winds.

4. Sunday another surge of Warm air advection WAA  will bring much warmer weather and south to southwest winds at 20-30 mph. lows will start out in the 30’s maybe low 40’s south with highs in the 60’s for most perhaps some 50’s north. Sunday night a strong cold front should move through with rising temps once again at night. The overall trough will be negative tilted, a strong LLJ will also be present. An impressive vort max should be moving just to the west of the region as well.

A look at the 300 mb jet notice a nice piece of jet energy moving in

A look at the soundings shows the LLJ to be impressive from 60-80 KTS, helicity values should be the roof again a key indicator of updrafts needed for storm rotation. sufficient instability appears to be present at this time for another severe weather event either Sunday night or Monday morning.

A squall line of thunderstorms should bring widespread severe weather sometime Sunday night or Monday morning with the frontal passage. High public impact. I strongly disagree with the SPC that this is a non event. That type of talk last time lead to a very bad forecast day there Tuesday. Apologies for not being able to post warnings in advance due to my absence.

5. Monday should clear out a bit lows will be in the 30’s with highs in the 30’s and 40’s.  Tuesday and Wednesday I’m keeping dry with highs in the 40’s maybe low 50’s and lows in the 30’s to maybe around 40 in the south.

6. the long range euro which looked promising for the first half of feb has been replaced by record warmth.

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3 Responses to “Long week ahead while I’m Gone”

  1. Cameron Fry Says:

    *Sigh* So no pattern change, after all then. Figures…

  2. mitch Says:

    winter weather adv for far northern ky tonight.

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