clipper recap and a return to the same old pattern


Well my placement of the band was a miss by about 40 miles to the northeast and to light. The forcing was able to overcome the major lack of moisture. Pinpointing these mesoscale snow bands is next to impossible and one small error leads to a forecast bust for some from Ft.Knox to Richmond and further east. Close but no cigar, at least my forecast did warn at the chance for snow while many were discounting this system.

Hope you enjoyed it b/c we’re going back to the same old pattern I’ve hated all winter

This – PNA forces a southeast ridge and dumps any cold into the west, it’s back where it was in NOV. And is the reason why any systems the next few weeks cut well to our west and most days are very mild through the end of Jan once this airmass in place leaves. Any cold shots are brief.

1. Monday will see a return to southwesterly flow which will cause some week isentopic lift to take place leading to increase in clouds, a light rain shower can’t be ruled out the best chance Monday should be from Little Rock to Indy where the isentopic lift is more pronounced. Lows should be in the mid 20’s north to the mid 30’s south. Any precipitation will be after the surface temp is above 32*F. Highs should climb into the mid 40’s north to low 50’s south. Winds will pick up from 10-20 mph.

2. A low pressure tracks in the lakes Tuesday bringing with it a strong cold front. Ahead of the front SW flow will lead to steady or rising temperatures Monday night. Will lean to the ECMWF with this since it handled the new years front well. Temperatures should rise into the low 50’s south and upper 40’s north. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph. Periods of rain showers will accompany the front, the SREF has .25-.75 of rain across the region I could see a few amounts near or just over an inch along I-71. I’m going with  the slower frontal passage on all models not named the GFS. This should allow for a temperature spike from 60-65 south and well into the 50’s across the remainder of the region.

3. temperatures crash fast Tuesday night into the 20’s with highs in the 30’s Wednesday perhaps near 40 south. Skies will clear as the wind direction temporarily turns back to the northwest. Thursday may be interesting with a chance of light rain or snow. After that we should really warm-up, good thing my trip to New Orleans for the American Meteorological society is next weekend and I won’t miss any winter. By the way this means I’ll be unable to update Sunday-Wednesday of next week from the 22nd-25th.

4. I continue to think around the 7th of FEB the pattern should change as we get another 10 mb warming event over the poles and the latest euro weekly forecast turns cooler around this time as well.  The end of this month should be a transition from the peak of warmth around the 23 rd several storms will cut into the lakes, maybe some severe weather as well.

Update: Saw some slight instability advection into the southern half of the region on the 00z NAM sounding. will add chance thunder regionwide with an isolated chance for strong storms and a gutsy wind threat.


One Response to “clipper recap and a return to the same old pattern”

  1. mitch Says:

    expect higher wind gusts.

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