Tricky Thursday ahead

by

Winter weather advisory in effect for Thursday afternoon till Friday morning*
– A strong cold front will move through in the morning

– temperatures drop  from the 40’s Thursday morning
to the upper 20’s by evening and around 20 by Friday morning in most spots.

Rain showers should develop by late morning changing to snow from west to east

– snow showers then will be likely Thursday afternoon and evening
diminishing to flurries for Friday.Most areas will see some light snow accumulations

-Snow will fall with temperatures below freezing late Thursday afternoon and night leading to development of slick
spots on roads. In addition enough instability may be present for locally heavy snow showers perhaps even with a rumble of thunder from
mid to late Thursday afternoon. These heavier snow showers may allow roads to become quickly snowcovered at times.

In addition winds are expected to increase from 15-25 mph with higher gusts out of the west
causing a potential for blowing snow. Overall travel due to wintry
weather may become a little tricky from late Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning even though snow amounts are not forecasted to be all
that high due to blowing snow, increased snowfall rates and falling
temperatures.

Highs Friday should reach 30 south and in the 20’s north with mostly cloudy skies
and patchy flurries winds will diminish some to around 10 mph, still a
cold day. On Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun highs should reach
the mid 30’s to low 40’s after lows around 20 or even in the 10’s.

-Attention turns to a
clipper system Saturday night, current forecast thoughts take this
clipper across south central KY which would increase clouds and bring a period of
light snow to southern Indiana along with central and southeast
Kentucky up to 1 inch.

Why will it snow Thursday?

– I showed the nice 500 mb vort max moving through yesterday.

– the Omega lift looks very impressive on the SREF from noon to 4 pm. This Omega lift tracks from BG in the afternoon to far eastern KY by evening. the rain changing to snow and heavy burst of snow follow this.

– A deep dendritic growth zone is present on the modeled soundings for the afternoon and evening

– instability will be due to steep low level lapse rates and some CAPE thus the outside chance for thunder

– The snow will be tracked throughout the day here!

Changeover time

Louisville, Bowling Green 1-4 pm ET

Covington, Lexington 4-7 pm ET

Ashland, pikeville 7 pm ET

The heaviest snow should be right after the changeover in most spots. with frequent snow showers mainly staying in the bluegrass and northern/eastern KY through Friday. Totals on the map could be locally twice as high due to heavier snow showers.

Overall to recap I’m going with rain changing to snow Thursday afternoon from west to east. Winds will increase and temperatures fall increasing travel hazards. snow showers in most locations should last into Friday.  Snow days/early releases likely for some. many slick roads to cause medium to high public impact. Again the map is only average snow accumulation local amounts could be 2X what is shown.

Saturday night clipper

I’m also thinking snow ratios help over the bluegrass and southeast KY with both events.

Updates are in comments section.

 

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10 Responses to “Tricky Thursday ahead”

  1. mitch Says:

    snow showers starting to deelvop in west TENN. Falling temps going as forecasted. For now will stick with snow totals but may need to reduce totals later this afternoon.

  2. Seth Says:

    What is there left to reduce? LOL:

  3. mitch Says:

    period of snow to give BG some accumulation from 1:30 to 4:30 pm CT.

  4. mitch Says:

    snow showers picking up now regionwide west of LEX. snow amounts look good.

  5. mitch Says:

    in a heavy snow shower myself at the moment.

  6. mitch Says:

    MAP UPDATE: GOING TO RAISE THE 1/2 INCH ZONE TO 1 INCH.

  7. mitch Says:

    northern ky has a better shot of snow later tonight. south this afternoon.

  8. mitch Says:

    quick glance at euro weeklies show a colder pattern for a change by months end!

  9. mitch Says:

    snow reports
    NWS LMK- .4
    BWG offical- .3
    BWG my house- .5

  10. mitch Says:

    numerous slick roads and accidents. allow caution!

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