First measurable snow of the year? increasing QPF Wednesday

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– It looks like the western option for the low track for Wednesday, Over the region will turn out correct. Also with timing a few hours faster now concerns over thunderstorms in the gulf taking away moisture known as convective feedback is less. The SREF and operational models have responded by increasing QPF into the 1-2 inch range. Some heavy rainfall rates may occur Wednesday morning. A key to the much lower QPF forecast in the last update was a further southeast low track that looks unlikely now. I think most of us will be around an inch of rain.

– Winds become light for a while Tuesday which lead to radational cooling and fog for the southeast. A miss there.

3. Snow showers are likely Thursday  and I will detail this more on Wednesday. This may end my talk of a historic snow-less winter even if it’s a few tenths of an inch. The ECMWF has really ramped up the threat picking up on an impulse and threat the lakes are running very warm now ready to transport moisture southeast.

The GFS model has it as well moving into the region. The trough moving in will lead to a more normal pattern for this time of the year a few days.

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Notice another impulse off the southwest coast. Yesterday the GFS had a winter storm from this cutting across the country but today the GFS has turned around to the ECMWF point of view and cuts it into the lakes. Another rain maker early next week around here and this solution matches the tanking – PNA.

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4 Responses to “First measurable snow of the year? increasing QPF Wednesday”

  1. mitch Says:

    sneaky clipper Saturday night could be a 1-2 inch snow for some if the 12z GFS is right.

  2. mitch Says:

    winter weather adv’s likely to be issued this afternoon for Thursday afternoon through Friday. Snow map coming later today on my site. This time I would issue adv’s.

  3. Seth Says:

    Nam seems to support 2-4″ totals for all of central and eastern kentucky.

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