Forecast for rest of week

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To recap Tuesday:

– the low cut further northwest but just slightly this allowed a wedge of WAA for a few hours to be located farther west over BG/LEX thus the temperature rose to 46 instead of the low 40’s. This made all the difference on the back edge of the precipitation instead of mid 30’s has upper 30’s. Also rain was underdone for Bluegrass.

– Could have been more bullish on snow shower chances behind main system as well.

Forecast:

Highlights

– Week clipper systems passing to our north 

– Overall still very mild

– Several windy days as well 

Forecast: 

-A week clipper system will track across the great lakes Thursday, with it a warmer airmass will move into the region along with a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures Thursday after a chilly start should rise to 53-58 in the south with highs around 50 north. A stray sprinkle or light shower cannot be ruled out either for the south with a decent shot at scattered rain showers for northern regions.

Another week clipper system will move through the great lakes region once again on Friday bringing with it another surge of warm air. Lows will be in the 40-45 range  south and in the upper 30’s north. Highs should get around 60 in the south Friday with 50’s elsewhere. This is several degrees above model guidance but usually model guidance is usually to cool in these set-ups. A concern would be if the clipper track was farther south which would increase the chances for passing rain showers and lower high temperatures Friday. Current thinking however only has a passing shower Friday, similar to Thursday with a track farther to the north. On both days winds will be gusty as well from 13-19 mph with gusts to 30 mph at times.

3. On Saturday once again we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds with highs from 52-57 south a few degrees cooler northern regions after starting out in the 35-40 range regionwide, winds will be lighter. For New Years day a strong frontal boundary is likely to move through the region. Timing of this boundary is still not entirely certain at this time which will have a large impact on temperatures. Right now the front should pass through the region in the afternoon. So this means clouds and warm air advection should increase with a chance for rain showers ahead of the front. Overnight temperatures New Years Eve should stay in the 40’s with highs reaching the upper 40’s to low 50’s Sunday before falling rapidly by late afternoon.

4. This leads to a likely cold start for the New Year however now no signs of the first measurable snow of the winter season are in the forecast. The pattern does not appear favorable anytime soon as we approach the halfway mark of meteorological winter. The winter of 1931-32 was snowless with several others having a trace for the entire winter. As it stands now a trace has fallen this season which would be the second least snowiest winter on record, quite a reversal from last year. 

Discussion:

– I’ve gotten burned with temperatures on the warm end of clippers many times in the past. It will be warmer than guidance. Unless the euro track is correct this would provide more clouds and rain. Models have a poor handle of advection.  

– Temperature spread was large within the guidance generally went warm with the clippers and ahead of Sunday’s front.

– Good agreement on gusty winds over the next several days except Saturday.

– I’ll update Sunday’s front more later this week along with a January forecast.

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