WINTER FORECAST 2011-2012

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OFFCIAL (FINAL) WINTER FORECAST

I’m updating the site with some of my winter ideas given my absence from the site will be extended into December. I must point out these are my personal thoughts and not of those of the NWS or NOAA.

HIGHLIGHTS

– back to back la-ninas with a time period in neutral conditions this past summer

–  recent  strong  -PNA which has led to a southeast ridge and warm weather, this is expected to persist into Nov and even Dec according to the ECMWF weeklies

– strong temperature gradient  from the southeast into northern plains

– severe risk is higher for Feb-Mar due to la-nina

– watching for signs of blocking, – QBO may help here can be a favorable wildcard

– drought in progress over the southern plains

OUTLOOK

1. The current state of the tropical pacific is in moderate la-nina status. we have seen some pattern anomalies throughout the past year which can be related to la-nina.

2. Here’s a look or my view of what three climate models have the CFS V2, ECMWF and JMA

CFS precip each month

– cfs temp by month ( dep from norm)

The CFS models above have been trending warmer with each passing each day.

JMA/ECMWF models for the winter ( my interpretation)

both of these models go blowtorch with warmth for our region. Just to recall they did this last year, didnt turn out well.

However past winters which had similar conditions leading into them ( analogs) paint a different picture

I had a few years which I could have added but did not for now. 2008-09 was a very good match in my view. 1. similar solar cycle phase 2. back to back la-nina of similar strength 3. neutral conditions for summer/fall. the next on the list is 2000-01, 1967-68, 1950-51,1955-56,1971-72,1999-2000 and 1974-75 seasonal maps can be made for each of these winter seasons or combination of seasons. I’ve added a few years based on the moderate status of the la-nina.

temp anomalies for entire winter based off of analog years

precip for analog winters

The QBO is trending negative, this indicated periods of stratospheric warming and in turn in arctic blasts, a – QBO favors more arctic blasts.

The Hurricane season matches up well with 2000.

Snow cover is running average to our north and similar to 2008-09, another key this is the right direction. Snowcover has increased the past few weeks.

DON’T THINK WE CAN SHAKE THE  – pna

storm tracks

A- clippers from the northern plains into the great lakes, main feature will be a few mild days ahead of each with snow north of the Ohio river. ( 25 % of storms)

B- lakes cutter track from eastern Texas/southern rockies into the Great lakes, rain and warmth for our region (40 % of storms)

C- Lows tracking from the south over our region may bring mix bag precip or even ice storms (20% of storms)

D- track across the south around the east slopes of the applachins and through the inerior midatlantic and northeast, snowsystems for us (15% of storms)

mean wintertime jetstream

temperature forecast

precipitation

snowfall

severe threats

– Overall the storm tracks favor the most snow compared to avg to fall in the northwest, rockies central plains and upper midwest. The Oct snowstorm pushes the northeast into an above normal forecast. With the storm track to our northwest expect 75% snow of normal 12 inches in lexington, 7.5  inches in Bowling Green/southern KY with about 15 inches in eastern KY  and the Cincy region

– I think winter’s peak in terms of snow and cold will be  from mid Dec into mid Jan.

– Feb will feature a thaw and likely the  – PNA which dominated/s NOV 

– Active storm track with many systems giving forecasters fits. tracks sometime north enough for thunderstorms others with slop and a track overhead and others snow threats.

– with arctic highs diving into the northern plains and a moist southerly flow the active storm track could very well give our region a high risk for an ice event over .25 inch. at least 2 light ice events under .25 inch should occur with a higher than normal ice storm threat. 08-09 the main analog featured a ice storm.

– above normal severe weather due to la-nina pattern mainly late winter

REGULAR DAILY POSTS RESUME DEC 19TH

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One Response to “WINTER FORECAST 2011-2012”

  1. mitch Says:

    new EC monthly product supports my bleak( for snow and cold fans) winter outlook.

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