winter preview

by

since this is the last post for a while here is a look at some early thoughts on the winter of 2011-12.

– neutral enso state.

– cold PDO ( acts to enhance la-ninas and trend the overall wintertime patterns toward la-nina)

– large scale drought over the south and southeast

Overall I could see the enso go either way. typically enso neutral conditions bring above normal snowfall to the region so this is a plus for snow fans out there. Second the CFS is leading the charge on the return of la-nina, we’ll see on this one. However at this time given the effect of the PDO as well I’m inclined to think the wintertime pattern may reflect at least a week la-nina state with the added influence of the southern drought.

I expect at this time a jet stream with a large western trough cutting into the central plains with a ridge in the southeast. mean storm track from texas into the ohio valley. snowier than normal from the central plains into the great lakes with average snowfall and temperatures in our region. colder than normal temperatures in the west and northern plains with warmer than normal temperatures for the southeast.

first idea

normal snow and temps. of course this with very little of the data in. I’ll update this in November when regular posting to this site is scheduled to resume.

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