4th of july: scattered storms

by

Like many 4th’s in our region this one features a threat for thunderstorms to provide the fireworks instead of your local show.

1. A week front moving in from the north will be the trigger. Overall this front may be close enough to northern regions for an isolated storm Sunday. This front moves through the region on Monday. Highs will still be near 90/ low 90’s with lows in the 60’s to low 70’s.

2. The GFS has the most optimistic drier 4th with only the week front contributing to rain chances. However I’m thinking more in line with NAM/ECMWF that a very week low pressure may form along the front to enhance storm chances a bit say around 50% coverage. timing of the storms looks to be in the afternoon and evening. instability will be in place with steep lapse rates for some of the storms to have marginally strong gusty winds of 40 mph and pea size hail for a few locations.

My thinking right now is for early afternoon storms to fire along I-64 then move southeast into the evening along the front. This leaves the chance to see storms and still clear out in time for evening activities on the 4th. More updates to come if there are changes.

Advertisements

One Response to “4th of july: scattered storms”

  1. mitch Says:

    heat index values from 100-105 in BWG this afternoon allow extra caution.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: