4th of july: scattered storms


Like many 4th’s in our region this one features a threat for thunderstorms to provide the fireworks instead of your local show.

1. A week front moving in from the north will be the trigger. Overall this front may be close enough to northern regions for an isolated storm Sunday. This front moves through the region on Monday. Highs will still be near 90/ low 90’s with lows in the 60’s to low 70’s.

2. The GFS has the most optimistic drier 4th with only the week front contributing to rain chances. However I’m thinking more in line with NAM/ECMWF that a very week low pressure may form along the front to enhance storm chances a bit say around 50% coverage. timing of the storms looks to be in the afternoon and evening. instability will be in place with steep lapse rates for some of the storms to have marginally strong gusty winds of 40 mph and pea size hail for a few locations.

My thinking right now is for early afternoon storms to fire along I-64 then move southeast into the evening along the front. This leaves the chance to see storms and still clear out in time for evening activities on the 4th. More updates to come if there are changes.


One Response to “4th of july: scattered storms”

  1. mitch Says:

    heat index values from 100-105 in BWG this afternoon allow extra caution.

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