MCS likely Sunday

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Eventhough storms were only scattered Thursday enough shear and instability in what i characterize moderate values were present. This led to a few storms producing gusty winds and a rotating wall cloud in Morgan county. The storms in the Lexington region were not tornadic and I’m not sure what gave the indication these storms were tornadic.

read above for the general forecast. However heading into Sunday I’m seeing the likelihood of a MCS complex and based on modeling I suspect precip chances Sunday to be going up in most forecasts. I’m not certain of the timing but this the type of situation that can lead to wash outs of outdoor events in addition to severe weather and flooding.

So far this severe season we started early with events that has considerable shear and little instability. Once summer sets in we went to a lot of events with high instability and little shear. Both of these scenarios produced severe storms with numerous events. the deep south tornado outbreak was an example of extreme shear and instability thus the major outbreak. now in recent days we have had moderate shear and instability which promotes some severe weather and tornadoes but not a widespread outbreak.  Parameters were just in the range needed for rotating storms not too much or to little. Yes folks you can have too much shear.

My concern already extends into this likely MCS Sunday particularly in regions that see some sun to destabilize things early.  If the mcs comes through early then a heavy rain and isolated wind damage threat would occur if it’s later

– lapse rates should steepen throughout the day showing an unstable atmosphere by days end, CAPE values becoming rather high as well showing moderate to strong instability

– bulk shear values of around 40,  and helicity values of 100-200 could lead to strong updrafts with storms and shear needed for rotation

– the MCS will be the boundary and lift for storms in a warm and humid airmass

again all of this is timing I fully expect the SPC to place the region in a day 3 risk for severe.

 

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2 Responses to “MCS likely Sunday”

  1. bgbecky Says:

    What area of KY? BG area?

  2. mitch Says:

    MCS already forming should move into western sections after midnight some storms may be severe.

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