fathers day weekend: stormy or hot take your pick

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The next few days will continue to feature a boundary over the region with waves of energy moving it to form more periods of storms and MCS’s. to the south and west of this boundary a hot summertime airmass will attempt to move northeast toward the Ohio valley.  A few days ago the set-up on the ECMWF in particular was one which featured the boundary further north the result would have been several hot and dry days with heat advisory level conditions. However my thinking is the boundary hangs in across the Ohio river.

For Friday with the boundary over northern Kentucky scattered afternoon storms should develop along it enough instability will be present west of I-75 for the storms to be strong with gusty winds and hail. highs may reach 90 with lows near 70. Saturday the boundary shifts northward slightly but still the region could be targeted for clusters of storms some of which could be strong with a similar temperature pattern. Sunday will similar to saturday with the focus of storm chances over the north. cloud debris from the storms may keep temperatures down from the forecast as well.

By Monday the boundary should clear north of the region, however my thinking is that MCS”S often track south of what model guidance and the north could still see action. with most of the region clearing out and a hot airmass moving in highs could reach the low to mid 90’s with dewpoints in the low 70’s heat index values may be around 100 in spots, however it’s encouraging the ECMWF has backed off of the heat index values of 110 or so for Monday.

What we can conclude from this is the summer theme appears to be holding up for the weekend projected heat waves being tamed by excessive thunderstorms. Long term pattern shows a much cooler nw flow pattern in the region with the heat ridge or as like to call it for the average reader the hot airmass retreats west.

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3 Responses to “fathers day weekend: stormy or hot take your pick”

  1. mitch Says:

    mcs moving into western sections later this afternoon, severe thunderstorm watch out for a few counties.

  2. mitch Says:

    another thunderstorm complex sunday morning with hvy rain, lightning and gusty winds for most of us.

  3. Mitch Says:

    Bow-echo with gusty winds this morning

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