stormy next few days

by

our summer forecast pattern is finally showing signs. A ridge centered over the western southern plains with a trough to our northeast. This sets the stage for boundaries to travel in between these two features with a continued sharp temperature gradient across the country.

– A front moves slowly through  the region Tuesday and Wednesday. With serves as a channel for clusters of showers and storms.

Overnight monday night A cluster of thunderstorms known as a MCS should develop along the boundary and move into Western KY throughout the day.  Overall I expect any thunderstorms to stay west of 1-75 with any severe weather threat confined to the BWG region. Although we will have ample shear in place regionwide instability will be slow to advect behind the frontal boundary across the region despite enough warmth and moisture in place.  The isolated severe weather may come in the form of wind damage and isolated tornadoes.

On Wednesday Another MCS will move along the boundary in the morning with afternoon redevelopment. Wednesday I expect instability to be ample along with shear across southern Kentucky for a more widespread severe threat behind the morning thunderstorms. A few supercells could also form as well with the threats from any severe weather in the form of damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes. Highs both days will be in the 70’s and 80’s with lows in the 60’s.  Furher north instability will likely not be sufficient enough for severe weather but showers and storms are still likely.

I’ll update as needed with current analysis as the projection of the MCS’s is associated with more uncertainty than usual. stay tuned for watches and warnings as well.

8 am Tuesday update

this morning the mentioned MCS should impact regions southwest of lexington no severe weather is expected.  storms may contain some wind, lightning and rain.

Central Great Lakes sector loop

update Wednesday 8:30 am

– clearing is occurring and now moving into western KY

– advection of CAPE a measure of potential instability is occuring west of the clearing, higher amounts of shear will also move with the front as it moves northwest.

– still though only southern regions should become unstable today and I’m still targeting a BWG-LOZ region for the threat for a supercells with gusty winds, hail and isolated tornadoes where shear and instability will be both be sufficient.

Advertisements

10 Responses to “stormy next few days”

  1. mitch Says:

    looking ahead to weekend concern will be heat of 95-100 coupled with dewpoints in the low 70’s. ecmwf most agressive on this.

  2. mitch Says:

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    920 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

    KYZ053-054-064-065-151345-
    GREEN-LARUE-MARION-TAYLOR-
    920 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

    …STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN…PENNY
    SIZE HAIL…AND GUSTY WINDS…

    AT 916 AM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
    STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HODGENVILLE…AND MOVING
    EAST AT 20 MPH.

    CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN…UP TO NICKEL
    SIZE HAIL…AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
    STORM.

    * THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    HIBERNIA AND GINSENG…
    BADGER…
    ATTILLA AND MAPLE…
    WHITE ROSE…
    this storm has produced hail of .88 inches so far.

  3. mitch Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL NOON EDT

    * AT 1127 AM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
    NORTHWEST OF PULASKI…OR 14 MILES NORTH OF SOMERSET…AND MOVING
    EAST AT 40 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    MOUNT VERNON…PULASKI…BOBTOWN…WOODSTOCK…BANDY…BEE LICK…
    WILLAILLA…QUAIL…OTTOWA…LEVEL GREEN…INDIAN LAKES PARK…GUM
    SULPHUR…BROMO…BLOSS…SPIRO…WABP…BRODHEAD…HANSFORD…
    MARETBURG AND CEDARVILLE.

  4. mitch Says:

    line of strong storms moving northeast from danville to lexington in the next hour with gusty winds up to 50 mph.

  5. mitch Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    BATH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ELLIOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    EASTERN FLEMING COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHWESTERN MENIFEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    ROWAN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 445 PM EDT

    * AT 409 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
    FROM FOXPORT TO PLUMMERS LANDING TO REYNOLDSVILLE TO GRASSY LICK…
    AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
    THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    MOUNT STERLING…OWINGSVILLE…MOREHEAD…MUSES MILLS…FLAT
    CREEK…GRANGE CITY…WYOMING…RINGOS MILLS…EWINGTON…SLATE
    VALLEY…CRAIGS…WALTZ…STEPSTONE…GATEWOODS STATION…
    PEASTICKS…SHARKEY…HOWARDS MILL…COONS STATION…KENDALL
    SPRINGS AND BOURBON FURNACE.

  6. mitch Says:

    radar detected roation over montgomery county seek shleter now! threat in morehead from straight line winds.

  7. mitch Says:

    any tornado would be brief and rain-wrapped with little visual notice.

  8. mitch Says:

    the rotation on radar will head into northern meniffee and southern bath county seek shlter now! report any wall or funnell cloud to the nws or law enforcement.

  9. mitch Says:

    rotation much weeker now.

  10. mitch Says:

    severe storms with hail and gusty winds on northisde of BWG.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: