Bet on MCS’s not 90 this week

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1. A warm front will swing north of our region monday as a result more warm moist air will advect into the region with highs in the 80’s. This also increases instability but with a CAP in place and no boundary it will be a mostly sunny day with highs in the 80’s.

2. By Monday night and Tuesday the front will arc southwest back into northeast Kentucky with low pressure in the northern plains. I expect this frontal boundary to be the focus of several large MCS thunderstorm complexes. Instead of the usual squall lines thunderstorms will organize near the boundary and move from nw to se the organization will not be linear w-e like we’ve seen but more nw-se along the boundary in clusters. These storms will be focused along the boundary through Wednesday with ample instability to develop them. Away from the boundary further southwest a CAP may not break for anything more than clouds for the MCS’s. Flooding will be another concern where thunderstorms move over the same regions. Some storms may be severe with gusty winds as the main threat from Monday night into Wednesday. Overall periods of storms are likely from Lexington to Somerset northeast with scattered coverage from Louisville into south central Kentucky. Highs will range from the mid 70’s with clouds and storms to the upper 80’s in the rain free regions with lows in the 60’s.

Another reason for the lack od the 90 across much of region will be abnormally high soil moisture across the region. I expect this to be constant throughout the summer. more plants etc. are in place to take in the UV from the sun on a daily basis. moisture in the ground is also evaporated to form clouds in spots.

By thursday a cold front moves closer with more storm chances regionwide.

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9 Responses to “Bet on MCS’s not 90 this week”

  1. mitch Says:

    yet again questions of the cap breaks today. severe thunderstorm watch may be issued soon as atmsophere although capped in very unstable. best chance for cap to break is from cvg to jkl ne near the boundary.

  2. mitch Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    249 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHERN BOURBON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    EASTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NICHOLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 315 PM EDT

    * AT 243 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    COLVILLE…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

    * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    CYNTHIANA…
    CARLISLE…
    HOOKTOWN…
    MILLERSBURG AND HEADQUARTERS…
    JACKSTOWN…
    EAST UNION AND WESTON…

  3. mitch Says:

    paris, mt.sterling and morehead regions may see large hail.

  4. mitch Says:

    burbon and harrison counties have reported hail close to severe limits.

  5. mitchg Says:

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=68082&source=0

  6. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    WESTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    EASTERN MASON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO…
    SOUTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO…

    * UNTIL 730 PM EDT.

    * AT 644 PM EDT…RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
    PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
    LOCATED NEAR REDOAK…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    ABERDEEN…
    WASHINGTON…
    MAYSVILLE…
    LEWISBURG…
    MANCHESTER…
    TOLLESBORO…
    VANCEBURG…

    IN ADDITION…DECATUR…MORANBURG…BRADYSVILLE…BENTONVILLE…
    SOMO…FLEMING-MASON COUNTY AIRPORT…TRINITY AND HELENA ARE NEAR THE
    PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

  7. mitchg Says:

    SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    1008 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

    KYC095-119-133-193-110245-
    /O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0137.000000T0000Z-110511T0245Z/
    KNOTT KY-PERRY KY-LETCHER KY-HARLAN KY-
    1008 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
    HARLAN…LETCHER…EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PERRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL KNOTT
    COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM EDT…

    AT 1006 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    ERMINE…OR NEAR WHITESBURG…MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
    EOLIA…OVEN FORK…PARTRIDGE AND LINEFORK AROUND 1015 PM EDT.
    BENHAM AROUND 1020 PM EDT.
    LYNCH AROUND 1025 PM EDT.
    BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN AND ROCK HOUSE AROUND 1030 PM EDT.
    CLOVER FORK AROUND 1035 PM EDT.

  8. mitch Says:

    cluster of storng storms will impact BWG between 4:30 and 6:30 pm ct. wind gusts of 35-60 mph and small hail are threats.

  9. mitch Says:

    cluster of storng storms will impact BWG between 4:and 6: pm ct. wind gusts of 35-60 mph and small hail are threats.

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