friday’s showers and a closer look at Monday

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Friday some regions did see some small hail with the showers, this is a function of steep lapse rates if you recall this condition was also present with the large hail event last week.  A lapse rate is the temperature difference between two levels the steeper gradient the higher the potential for a conditionally or even an absolutely unstable atmosphere.  As I usually to try to point out this is only one of many indicators but was a prime contributor to each hail event.

Now onto Monday, as the ECMWF has suggested modeling is moving this system in faster which means there is less daytime heating present to increase instability. Although several other factors even with marginal instability should make this a decent squall line event with some cells ahead of the line. Storm motions in excess of 70 mph are possible with considerable shear making the main threats wind damage and tornadoes, lapse rates don’t look all that impressive so I’m leaning away from hail at this time being a major threat. moisture int the region I’m still thinking will be enough for severe storms.

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