Time for SPC to see the threat for Monday

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This in my view for 4 days out looks pretty clear cut on the modeling and overall set-up were in for a severe outbreak. It’s 4 days out things can and do change with the most likely weather that far out. The memo to the SPC is the threat is present why no outlook, you have a 4-8 day severe outlook USE IT. Maybe by the time many of you read this there will be outlook we shall see.

Let’s look at some of the indices for BWG  on the 00z GFS ( the ECMWF has a close representation to this at least at the surface and with CAPE values on several of the model runs)

CAPE- 1798 ( unstable atmosphere)

CAP ( CIN)- 72 ( just enough to keep from to much convection forming)

LI/Showwalter -7 ( very unstable)

TT- 59 ( severe storms, tornadoes)

K-index- 37 ( favorable for thunderstorm delevopment)

SWEAT- 575 ( 400 is threshold for tornadic storms)

modeled storm type- supercells

LLJ- 58 kts, storm motion 56 kts ( both of which suggest gusty winds in excess over severe criteria  are possible)

Helicity- 515 ( very sheared environment which promotes rotation with storms, may however be to sheared)

This is by far the best combination of shear and instability we have had in quite some time if the modeling is correct. Dewpoints over 70*F and decent lapse rates should contribute as well. As far I’m concerned the risk is already a moderate for the region if all holds this could be a rare high risk day. Although odds of this set-up on this run holding are not good.

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One Response to “Time for SPC to see the threat for Monday”

  1. tornadolarkin Says:

    Lets go high risk!!! 😀

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