accumulating snowfall northern KY overnight

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A strong arctic high pressure will be place over the upper great lakes which will continue to advect unseasonably cold air into the region. Another wave of low pressure will move across along the front which brought the storms earlier in the week across the south. With the system tracking to our south and the cold air in place with the timing of the system being Saturday night snow should be the main precipitation type for many. After highs in the 40’s to low 50’s later today temperatures will fall back into the 30’s with nightime and evaporational cooling across the region. The Northern half of the region should see a quick change from rain to snow while the southern half of the state changes to light snow at the end. Another concern is the threat for frz rain as the cold air moving into the region will be faster at the lower levels.  Once again this will be another isentropic lift/overunning set-up with about .1-.3 qpf on average. I also continue to notice the models trending colder with this system. Overall model agreement is good with the ECMWF slightly faster and drier. Given the NAM has led the charge in  the amount of colder air into the region. I’m not going that cold at this time nor that wet with QPF. Also I’m going take 5:1 ratios with snow due to the warm ground and soil temps.

North- quick change from rain to snow up to 2 inches of snow, temps fall below freezing overnight with slick spots, expect some winter weather adv’s

central- mix of rain/snow and freezing rain ending as light snow little accums

south-  rain ending as icy mix or light snow little or no accums

by the way winter’s still not done and a potential major snowstorm on Apr 1 is no april fools particulary for the apps into the interior northeast, all comes down to the phasing.

The GFS is already close to doing so.

phased solution thu-fri

unphased solution

All I have to say it’s APR time for severe weather. Though still hard to forget opening day at keeneland in 2007 with 2 inches of snow on Apr 7th.

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