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day 5 outlook for severe weather and snow for our region?

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I’m forecasting a low risk for severe weather on day 5 Wednesday. the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement with a triple point to our southwest where 3 boundaries intersect with a warm front through the state. this could provide the basis for some shear in addition some marginal instability could occur south of the warm front coupled with increasing temperatures and dewpoints. However these sharply cutoff along and north of the warm-front. BWG to Somerset has the best chance in this low risk zone. This low will track from the mid south southeast with much colder air moving into the region allowing for rain to change to snow for northern KY with ample QPF accumulations of snow will be possible for the CVG region.

GFS wed pm

Thu am  

scroll below for the weekend forecast.

This entry was posted on March 18, 2011 at 12:08 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

One Response to “day 5 outlook for severe weather and snow for our region?”

  1. mitchg Says:
    March 18, 2011 at 12:29 pm | Reply

    12z gfs has shifted this zone north a bit expect a few shifts in future model runs. main point is that modeling is keying on a region of marginal instabilty and decent shear over our region with a favorbale amount of mositure into the region. This in my view will justify a slight risk of severe from the spc when day 3 is wednesday.

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