spring and summer forecast for 2011

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short term: we can factor in teleconnections here over the next few weeks a negative NAO, AO and positive PNA this along with the ECMWF weeklies promote the chance for some cooler than normal temperatures over the next few weeks. we’re in a moderate la-nina which is expected to fade into the spring and summer. The recent pattern has been for warm and dry with low soil moisture across the southern plains region and an active storm track from the midwest into the Ohio valley and east coast.

Now onto the forecast two main climate models the CFS which actually was the only tool used that showed a cold January and the ECMWF both have a similar pattern set-up for the spring into the summer.  Let’s look at the CFS since it’s the free one that can be used by the public.

precipitation

temperature

overall a ridge with hot and dry weather over the southern plains and southeast with cool and wet conditions from the upper midwest to northeast.

analogs

96,01,08

All three of these spring/ summer seasons featured normal temperatures with normal precipitation in the spring then above normal precipitation in the summer.

 with strong agreement between the analogs, models and the general pattern in place I have good confidence in this forecast for spring-summer 2011.

temp/jet

precip

also note the lines aren’t absolute if you’re close expect near normal conditions leaning toward the anomaly surrounding your region.

Kentucky:

temps: near normal

precip: slightly above normal

southern plains/southeast

temps: above normal

precip: below normal

west coast

temps: near normal

precip: below normal ( the only real wildcard based off a gut feeling)

upper midwest/northeast

precip: above normal

temps: below normal

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2 Responses to “spring and summer forecast for 2011”

  1. Seth Says:

    Thanks for putting a Spring forecast Mitch! I’m glad we are out of the drought phase.

    Any thoughts on which areas will be consistently hit with severe weather this spring? Severe weather axis (if there is such a thing)?

  2. mitchg Says:

    one last snow map could be coming later today, a band of snow along 1-64 centered around the rush hour monday. light rain starts to fall sunday night then with dynamical and evaporational cooling it changes to snow for several hours around the rush hour before ending by midday could be .1-.2 qpf or up to an inch of snow from LOU to LEX.

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