flood watch east KY

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The risk of more rises of river levels across the region has prompted the issuance of a flood watch for  east KY.

Periods of rain and storms ahead of the boundary will  continue through tomorrow afternoon with rainfall amounts around 1 inch. Modeling is suggesting some amounts around 2 inches However some lower RH values are currently in place which will keep rain totals down a touch. Another concern is for a band of thundershowers to form just ahead of the front late in the afternoon Wednesday which may have hail and gusty winds. Ahead of this front more gusty winds are expected.

Looking ahead to Thursday low clouds should linger with a nw flow and drizzle behind the front and temperatures only near 40 for highs, a great day to stay inside.

However our secondary low theory which has resulted in several snow chances this winter may be at it again. Modeling is starting to pick up on a secondary low forming over the apps Thursday and tracking into the eastern lakes. This would bring a band of accumulating snow for eastern KY into Ohio. I’ll update this later today.

Coming up later this week will be my spring forecast. A climate model called the CFS received a lot of skeptic views for forecasting a cold JAN despite the strong la-nina it turned out cold. Given that the ECMWF seasonal model has roughly the same thing that should be a good base, I’ll throw in a few analogs, look at the teleconnections and current pattern as well.

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3 Responses to “flood watch east KY”

  1. mitchg Says:

    FLOOD ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    942 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

    INC019-043-061-KYC027-029-085-093-111-163-183-185-091730-
    /O.NEW.KLMK.FA.Y.0011.110309T1442Z-110309T1730Z/
    /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
    CLARK IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-OLDHAM KY-JEFFERSON KY-MEADE KY-
    BULLITT KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-HARDIN KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-
    942 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN…
    BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    BULLITT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    HARDIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE…
    SOUTHERN MEADE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    OLDHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    OHIO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY…
    EASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA…
    SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA…
    SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA…
    GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 1230 PM EST/

    * AT 930 AM EST…THE FLOOD ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR A LARGE
    PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL BE
    EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS ENDED…THE FLOOD
    ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED DUE TO ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF HIGH WATER
    AFFECTING LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION…
    SEVERAL LOW LYING AREAS STILL WERE UNDER MINOR FLOOD WITH STANDING
    WATER…THOUGH WATER WAS BEGINNING TO RECEDE.

    ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
    AFTERNOON MAY BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE QUARTER
    OF AN INCH. HOWEVER…THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO WORSEN
    FLOODING. IN FACT MANY LOCAL STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE EXPECTED TO
    SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

  2. mitchg Says:

    update out shortly on mutliple accumulating snow chances over the next several days.

  3. mitchg Says:

    the jackson office is coming around to my thinking for thursday night

    AS THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
    THURSDAY…WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST BACK INTO
    EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH A COLD (-25C TO
    -30C) POCKET OF 500MB TEMPERATURES. THIS MOISTURE…COMBINED WITH THE
    MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD GIVE WAY TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THURSDAY
    AFTERNOON. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS
    WELL. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND COLD
    ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE…CERTAINLY COULD START SEEING SOME SNOW (OR
    EVEN GRAUPEL) DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY
    NIGHT…THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT A COMPLETE
    CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. THE ABUNDANCE OF MID AND LOW
    LEVEL MOISTURE…COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW…WILL CONTINUE TO
    PRODUCE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
    EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE RIDGETOPS…WITH VALLEY
    LOCATIONS EVEN PICKING UP A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW. CERTAINLY A
    REMINDER THAT THE OFFICIAL START TO SPRING IS STILL A FEW WEEKS OFF.

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