Quick update.

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Good evening everyone!! Thanks for checking in. Today has been a rainy day, and has been not so warm. Most areas have been between 1 and 2″, which doesn’t help the flood situation. As we go into tonight, we may see a switch over to snwo for a period of time. The area with the best threat for this will be over eastern Ky, mainly east of I-75. The NAM has been very consistant with 1-2″ over eastern KY, but the WRF has had other thoughts today. One form of it was showing nealy 10″ of snow in Lexington, and then the 12z run of it shows 2-4″ for a lot of central KY. Here are my current thougths on this:

  • central KY, such as Lexington, Lawrenceburg, and Frankfort, get 1″, maybe 2″ at the most.
  • eastern KY, such as Jackson, and most of the rest east of I-75 get 1-2″, 3″ max.

Later this week, look for severe weather and more rain. I am still leaning on the EURO’s placement of this low.

Now, will the EURO’s solution happen exactly? More than likely not, but it give a good picture of where I think this will go. The NWS says this about this event.

WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BEGINNING TUE EVE INTO TUE NIGHT
AS SURFACE LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER MISSOURI…BECOMING NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS TO NRN IL BY WED
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS FORCING FOR ASCENT AS WELL AS RAPIDLY
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM 06Z-09Z WED WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT WITH THAT ACTIVITY
OVERSPREADING ALL OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING WED.

SEVERE AND FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER THREAT
CURRENTLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A 60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET/HIGH
(LOW LEVEL SHEAR) BUT INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED WITH WARM LOW TO
MID LEVELS AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT ONLY IN THE MID 40S OR
SO. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM ABOUT 09Z-17Z WED (PRIME
TIME FOR OUR FORECAST AREA) LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT 1/2 TO 1
INCH.

I will have more on this tomorrow. 🙂 Have a great night and God bless.

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One Response to “Quick update.”

  1. mitchg Says:

    sleet in frankfort!

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