Rain, rain…. to snow?????

by

Good afternoon everyone. Thanks for reading today, and it has been warm and windy today. This is in response to the low level jet brining in gulf moisture and warm temps. Here are the current temps.

So, as we move into this weekend, we will likely be seeing another rain event. This will exacerbate flooding problems, and will aid rivers in staying higher. Even though we are 24 hours out, the models are still divergent on how much rain we receive. What I do know, is that the low level jet is brining in, not significant moisture, but moisture, and this moisture and set up of the low level jet is going to be significant in seeing how much rain we actually get. The NAM is still showing a significant amount over central and eastern KY.

The NAM isn’t alone in it’s thinking. There is a short-term weather models that the NWS has on their model page that has a TON of rain falling in eastern and central KY.

If that was to occur, then serious flooding problems would arise. The GFS isn’t as bullish with this storm as the NAM is.

It generally keeps precip amounts under one inch in most places. The Canadian is in alliance with the NAM. It is showing 1.5″ to 2.5″ across most of central KY.

An interesting thing to watch for is for someone in central and eastern KY to change over to wet snow on Sunday. This morning the NAM was kind of blowing things out of proportion by saying areas across central KY could get upwards of 6″ of snow. Yeah, I am 99% sure that will NOT happen. But with weather in KY, you never know…..

The storms will continue rolling into the area into next week. By early next week, a storm will likely be forming across the plains. The NAM has it’s beginning stages on early Tuesday.

The GFS has its evolution beginning around the same time as the NAM. This system, as I stated yesterday, has so much more potential to give us severe storms than the last two. This storm will likely catch onto the cold air in Canada, and will bring it down. That is only part of my logic. The jet streams will likely all be very strong during this one. I think the GFS is down playing the strength of these jets. The EURO seems to portray the strength good. It also has a very good hold on the track of the low, and I am favoring it.

LOW PLACEMENT

LOW LEVEL JET

This will likely be another strong squall line event, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes being the main hazards.

That is all for now. Thanks for checking in and God bless.

NOTE:

Flood watches are out for most of ky, go to this link to read and see them :

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

 

Advertisements

3 Responses to “Rain, rain…. to snow?????”

  1. mitch Says:

    Thinking is similar to pierce hvy rain to some snow at the end, I’m becoming more concerned more about a acutal band of acc snow in the state. may issue snow map either tomorrow morning before departing norman or late at night after the long travel day.

  2. mitch Says:

    hvy rain this morning from bwg to lex could see some flood warnings soon for this axis. as for snowfall thinking it falls in all areas east of I-65 many spots see flurries. accumulations up to 2 inches on grass from liberty to lexington eastward and northeastward as the cold catches up with the precip sheild hvy snowfall rates allow for grassy accums. best chance between 5 and 8 am.

  3. tornadolarkin Says:

    Will likely be updating a little later today.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: