heavy rains likely severe storms??

by

thinking is in line with the nws on the rainfall. I like these new hydro products being issued!

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
712 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2011 /612 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2011/

…HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT…

THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING OVER TEXAS WITH A
WARM FRONT REACHING NORTHEAST INTO KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE AS THE LOW RIDES UP IT…REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING AND CROSSING THE LENGTH OF KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT NOT MOVING MUCH PLUS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMING IN TO THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE…A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KENTUCKY STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER A SLIGHT DEVIATION
IN THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORM. IF THE STORM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST
THEN MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN MAY BE FORCED DOWN INTO TENNESSEE. IF
THE STORM TRAVELS FARTHER NORTH THEN IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN WE
WILL HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

BETWEEN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TWO TO
THREE AND A HALF INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVY
RAIN SETS UP. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BEST TIME FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PASSES THROUGH AND SWINGS ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY RECENTLY…HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY STILL CAUSE PROBLEMS IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE
PRONE TO FLOODING SUCH AS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN TOWNS…LOW-LYING
AREAS…AND SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS.

THE FORECAST OF THIS WET WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOT SET IN STONE…SO
RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA ARE ENCOURAGED
TO KEEP UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL MEDIA. WEDNESDAY WOULD BE A GOOD
DAY TO REVIEW YOUR FLOOD SAFETY PLANS.

check back after 6 am wed  for the correct image, spc day 2

SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical

I still this is marginal for our region. shear, moisture and the jet are all good with little instability. Though it’s hard to forget the main fall severe event in Oct which had similar parameters, though I don’t see anything close to that occurring. more like the thanksgiving event in fact the indices at BWG match up well for thursday and thanksgiving day.

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