Forecast for severe weather and heavy rains

by

– a warm front moves into the region by Thursday morning with periods of rain and thunderstorms throughout the day

– I’m in line with the ECMWF which has support from the 12Z NAM which takes this front slightly farther north into central Kentucky thinking the GFS is to far south with the axis of hvy rains over southern Kentucky.

– this allows for clearing and marginal instability over the regions along and south of the southern Kentucky parkway with substantial shear , a strong jet and plenty of moisture a severe threat exists in the form of a squall line between 9 pm in BWG to 2 am in the far southeast. This squall line may contain isolated tornadoes and  gusty winds. Isolated severe storms from e-town northeast along the bluegrass and I-64 regions are possible, the hvy rain axis will keep the severe threat limited. During the day periods of rain and some thunder should occur. rainfall should end by Friday morning

– for rainfall I like the SREF mean precip charts which can be found through a google search of SREF. this brings a general 2-3 inches of rain for the region with some 1-2 amounts for the far southeast.  I think a swath of local amounts of 4 to 5 inches may set-up may form due to training storms from e-town to Lexington to ne KY.

– overall I’ll be watching for minor flooding and flash flood watches have been issued and some severe storms in the south.

graphics added 8 pm ct Wednesday

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3 Responses to “Forecast for severe weather and heavy rains”

  1. mitch Says:

    I still like my severe threat outline even w/ spc further north. going to increase rain amounts to 2-3 based on morning radar.

  2. mitch Says:

    FLOOD ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    628 AM EST THU FEB 24 2011

    KYC003-009-031-061-141-171-213-227-241415-
    /O.NEW.KLMK.FA.Y.0001.110224T1128Z-110224T1415Z/
    /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
    BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-WARREN KY-BARREN KY-LOGAN KY-ALLEN KY-
    SIMPSON KY-MONROE KY-
    528 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * FLOOD ADVISORY FOR…
    ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    BARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN EDMONSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    LOGAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SIMPSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOWLING GREEN…

    * UNTIL 815 AM CST

    * AT 520 AM CST DOPPLER RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT UP TO
    AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA OVER THE PAST TWO
    HOURS…INCLUDING THE CITY OF BOWLING GREEN. TRAINING SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
    HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
    IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS MUCH RAIN MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
    AREA ROADWAYS AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS AND LOW WATER
    CROSSINGS.

  3. mitch Says:

    FLOOD ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    926 AM EST THU FEB 24 2011

    KYC065-109-125-199-203-242030-
    /O.NEW.KJKL.FA.Y.0002.110224T1426Z-110224T2030Z/
    /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
    ESTILL KY-JACKSON KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-PULASKI KY-LAUREL KY-
    926 AM EST THU FEB 24 2011

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED AN

    * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR…
    ESTILL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    ROCKCASTLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 330 PM EST THURSDAY

    * AT 924 AM EST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
    AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER
    RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
    OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
    RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA 9:30 AM AND NOON.

    * RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO OCCUR…
    ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. SOME
    LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE…IRVINE…
    LONDON…MCKEE…MOUNT VERNON…SOMERSET…ALCORN…ALPINE…
    ALUMBAUGH…ANNVILLE…ARDERY…ATKINSTOWN…ATLANTA…BALDROCK…
    BANDY…BEE LICK…BENT…BERNSTADT…BILLOWS…BLACKBURN…
    BLACKWATER…BLANTON FLATS…BLOSS…BOBTOWN…BOND…BOONE…
    BRADSHAW…BRAZIL…BRODHEAD…BROMO AND BRONSTON.

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