model impass on severe threat for southern KY

by

NAM

– brings warm front through with squall line thursday night, strong wind shear marginal instability.

GFS

– keeps warm front over region, we never enter warm sector thus no severe storms, some shear no instability

remember severe storms are due to a combination of two factors shear and instability!

a few other things stick out

– strong low level jet to 75 kt

– helicity ( a sum measure of directional and speed shear) is really high

– little to no CAPE ( measure of instability)

overall I would call this one a slight risk but exercise caution if instability values trend much higher this could be a much larger severe event thursday night. If you’re chasing head to central or eastern ARK.

by the way another stratospheric warming event up in the north pole, the last two this winter resulted in arctic outbreaks about a week to 10 days later. let’s see what the new 00z gfs has. A snowy and cold spring break for me!

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