is it dry enough for you?

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1. maybe a nose bleed or something is on the way for you as Relative humidity values which measure moisture content are very low right around 10% in portions of the region. Right now at Lawrence County mesonet the RH is only 13%. With some sun we have warmed into the 50’s but have seen little moisture advection so far due to northerly flow so far this weekend. I expect clouds to move in across the remainder of the region later today and sunday ahead of a warm front which will switch the wind to southerly and also increase moisture. With the low RH values I’m wondering just how much rain we’ll see due to overrunning in the next 36 hours.

2. Tonight we stay warm due to clouds with lows in the 40’s. For Sunday with the warm front I expect another overcast day with a few sprinkles, while isentropic lift known commonly as overrunning produces a snowstorm for the upper midwest. Highs should reach the mid to upper 50’s with some 60’s mixed in. Monday should be cloudy as the storm in several pieces moves east across the upper Ohio valley. Highs Monday should be in the 50’s once again with a 60 ro two over the southeast. By Monday night the cold front moves through and it may be just cold enough for flurries Monday night and Tuesday. Winds should also pick up again from the south.

GFS timeline of storm

3. I have a suspicion Tuesday may be more wintry than what some of you may like. we’ll be back in nw flow with overcast skies with flurries and sprinkles and steady temps in the mid to upper 30’s.  The NAM is heading in this direction.

4. The Excessive rainfall threat  which I discussed last week is still present. The 12z gfs for thu-sat of next week overdid convection with feedback. cmc and ecwmf both show a 2-4 inch rainfall. Will have to watch for some minor hydro issues.

you can see the big blobs of hvy precip on the gfs. expect the next run to back off a bit.

by the way the storm track should shift south after this which may still mean one last shot of winter!

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