old man winter making comeback? Wild times ahead!


1. After looking at the overall synoptic setup one low goes north with some overrunning that leads to light rain for the north Sunday and Monday. A second low tracks overhead with rain ending as snow showers with accumulating snows from Indy to Washington DC for Monday night through Tuesday.  I’ll detail this later today.

2. We really warm it up by Thursday of next week the I-70 region to our north goes from a snowstorm to 70*F in about 48 hours. This should also be an unsettled period with showers and storms in our region late next week. Watch for a severe threat as well as the ECMWF is showing marginal CAPE values during this timeframe.

3. Next week could end with a secondary storm with our region on the fence between winter and spring. After this old man winter will be back in full force with the MJO going back to where it was back in JAN Both the ECMWF and GFS show a major cold blast by this timeframe as well. What should have old man winter really encouraged is the NAO is now projected to be negative in the extended with a PNA trending toward positive . All of this with some warming of the stratosphere in the north pole suggest the potential for cold to return in full force for days 10-15 with aim over the central US. A southeast ridge should still be in place leading to a similar storm track at the end of the last la-nina back in 08. Of course all of this from the GFS the big question will be in the ECMWF weeklies head in this direction as well.

4. 14 day forecast updated!


2 Responses to “old man winter making comeback? Wild times ahead!”

  1. tornadolarkin Says:

    Ok Mitch, from reading that article you posted yesterday, I am honestly scared. If this bill actually goes through, money value will be immeasurable. So many live could be lost due to this.

    And thanks for the post!!

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