did you really think the northern trend wasn’t coming?

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Today I’ve only briefly glanced at the modeling for the Wednesday snowfall. However I’m noticing a typical northward correction today. the new 00Z NAM has from 1-64 south seeing a few inches of snow with southern KY possibly getting over 3 inches of fluffed up snow with ratios from 15-22:1.

00z NAM

The GFS ensembles are rebelling against the operational  from Monday night and look a lot like the new 00z nam. remember the operational is only is one of about 16 12z gfs runs and tells a very small part of the story.  here is the mean qpf for wed into thu.

 the euro on Monday’s 12z run also went north of the 00z run. I still do have concerns about drier air, NE flow  in place with a strong arctic high. Overall I’m sensing the models starting to come around to this system. This storm looked a big one a few days ago but to many storms have left the station in the last week for the big one and I would also like to have seen more of a southeast ridge for a bigger event.

I’ll detail everything on Tuesday. For this Monday event I liked the forecast overall the QPF on the modeling showed the potential for 4 in a few spots but i did overestimate the warm ground temps a little and underestimated the snowfall rates which allowed for more snow to accumulate than thought for some. For most this was a good forecast. the impact was underdone here as snowfall rates were hard enough for roads to become quite slick in spots. for a western KY recap i’m sure beau will have something on his site which is linked to the side.  

I’ll leave you with two reports tonight one from Nashville WFO the other from Jackson WFO, good reads.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ohx&storyid=61485&source=2

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=63582&source=0

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