overnight update

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today will see a mix of rain of snow showers with temps in the 30’s I was correct in seeing the west shift.

Monday I expect a low pressure to form along the front with a 1-3 band to the northwest of the track. Once again marginal thermal profiles for the region and I’ll go more into detail later today.

Here however is a little bone. My main hunch with this storm is that snow ratios will be 20:1 with temperatures near 20. So .5 qpf and you get 10 inches of snow. Right now the DGEX was most aggressive the CMC and ECMWF close and the GFS trying to get back into the game. I still think the models will correct northwestward over the weekend till the storm reaches the upper air network Monday. I sense now there seeing the Monday system and this may have shifted the overall pattern south on this set of runs. For now I’m going with a path that is a little further northwest than most of the models and a little stronger than some of the models as well. overall these corrections i see the models are realtivity minor. I’ve also eliminated a track west of the apps meaning snow or no snow and the words rain or ice aren’t  going to happen.

projected path with cone of uncertainty

track 1- further northwest the circled region is where a decent chance for accumulating snows are .the inner circle is where the threat for 6 inches is highest with a chance of 12 inches.

track 2- further south

track 1

track 2

the models now suggest the southern path but the usual model shifts mean the northern outcome is fair game. Again the main thing that make speculated amounts rather excessive in the early going are high ratios. Warm it up a bit and the best we do is a typical Kentucky snowstorm keep it cold we can go to the extreme like the 18z DGEX.

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4 Responses to “overnight update”

  1. Hardball Says:

    Mitch. You do a very good job explaining your thoughts.. I appreciate your hard work and dedication to this blog. Thanks again for helping break down some crazy ky winter weather!

  2. mitchg Says:

    thanks hardball.

    band of moderate snow heading to I-65 from e-town to Louisville between 1 and 2 pm.

  3. mitchg Says:

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    1204 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2011

    INZ076>078-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-051915-
    ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-
    HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PAOLI…SALEM…SCOTTSBURG…JASPER…
    MARENGO…TELL CITY…CORYDON…NEW ALBANY…JEFFERSONVILLE…
    HAWESVILLE…HARDINSBURG…BRANDENBURG
    1204 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2011 /1104 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2011/

    …LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA…

    A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
    INDIANA AND AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 BY
    1 PM EST. THIS SNOW MAY BRING QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE
    HALF INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES AND BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
    LESS THAN ONE MILE. ALTHOUGH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE
    FREEZING…THE RATE OF SNOWFALL MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO
    ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES AND OVERPASSES. SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL
    DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL
    KENTUCKY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65

  4. laura Says:

    thanks mitch i appreciate you keeping us informed.

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