upper low stronger tonight, 12z gfs typical gfs nonsense in the long range


first the upper low being stronger tonight is not good for snow tonight east of I-65 in fact I’m thinking now after a look at the 12z nam and gfs that many areas east of I-65 will see mainly a cold rain with snow showers saturday morning and very little accumulation. the main snow band will be northwest of the low track from west of Bowling Green to Louisville with 1-3 inches of snow, note it si stronger so more potential for accumulation. Notice with this storm we have had to make several corrections north and west the first I saw several days out this second one I did not see as well but still well within a typical storm error for 24-48 hours only about a 40 mile shift west of the band.

This leads me to the suppressed 12z gfs run for our storm next week Yes I did mention a track along the gulf coast which keeps the low further south leading to only light snow here with some model support. However the correction is always north and west with time in my view for snow it is a good sign this adjustment has occurred because we can bank on the north and west trends in the modeling. looking at the synoptic set-up I feel track 2 is most likely and the HPC followed this closely today from the deep south up the east slopes of the apps.


3 Responses to “upper low stronger tonight, 12z gfs typical gfs nonsense in the long range”

  1. Chastity Says:


    Thanks for the update! 🙂

    I appreciate your thoughts regarding the 12z GFS runs! I tend to agree that this is good early on considering the known biases of the GFS during this range. I think we’ll see that correction somewhere closer to the 72 hr frame, which means we’ll probably have to suffer through a few more “sad” runs first.

  2. Neil Says:

    You called it – WWAs moved toward the west…

  3. mitch Says:

    my thinking lies with the 12z ecmwf on a track which is great news for snow fans

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