short term: light snow friday night and saturday

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– Friday should feature highs in the mid 30’s this will make thermal profiles questionable southeast for friday evening. Light precipitation should overspread the region friday evening as the upper low tracks overhead. This light precipitation lasts into saturday morning qpf looks limited around .1 to perhaps .15 in some spots and with the southeast starting as mix I’m finding hard to think that many regions will see over an inch but quite a few places should get an inch in my view. A concern is the dry slot at 700 mb showing up late friday night.  There is a potential of up to 2 inches along the upper low track from BWG to LEX where some moderate snow bursts could fall. Again a light snowfall and roads should stay mainly wet but slick spots are possible from friday night into saturday.

700 mb moisture

midnight sat am

nam image above and below

notice the air drying out early saturday.

NAM QPF

this is overdone as it porduces qpf in the dry slot

 

GFS QPF

not a lot of moisture to work with marginal temperatures and the dry slot lead me to think a lower qpf forecast of around .1 is advised of course more qpf southeast but the mix takes some snowfall. So this means around an inch for most with isolated amounts of 2 inches.

– another light snowfall is likely monday this may start as rain with falling temperatures and gusty winds

–  I’m going to take a brief look at the ECMWF and post my 3 track idea in a few minutes for next week above this post.

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