big storm next week 3 potential tracks


taking a look at the spread in the 18z gfs ensembles and the 00z runs, I see three potential tracks for this big mid week storm. One of them features the JMA, NOGAPS and DGEX that are well to the south along the gulf coast and slide out to sea bringing heavy snow to the deep south. Track 2 is the cmc, ECMWF and gfs which track the low from texas to the delta region of MS then through atlanta and up the east coast. Track 3 is the low tracks from texas further north up the west slopes of the apps. Track 1 would bring a light snow for the south with heavy snow for the deep south. Track 2 would be ideal for a heavy snowstorm while track 3 would bring a nasty mix.  The UKMET is undecided between 1 and 2.  No models have track 3 which is good news.

The GFS shows the full potential with a 48 hour snowstorm with very cold air in place with snow ratios of 20:1 so only .5 qpf gives you 10 inches of snow. The CMC and ECMWF also are on that ideal track but are warmer meaning less snow but similar amounts of qpf.


3 Responses to “big storm next week 3 potential tracks”

  1. mitch Says:

    updated call likely to give a cold rain tonight for areas east of 1-65 and an inch or so with mix west of 1-65.

  2. mitch Says:

    I see the 12z gfs coming in It’s a good sign the storm is getting squished.

  3. MIke Says:

    Interesting. Thanks for sharing. I am hoping for a foot in Richmond or nothing. No more 3 inches and dashed hopes.

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