FIRST CALL: light snow friday night and saturday

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First to recap this historic storm which produced tremendous amounts of ice and snow to our northwest along with very gusty winds for most of the country. for regional recaps follow these links.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=02_01_2011

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=tsa&storyid=63371&source=0

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011feb01_summary

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=63391&source=0

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=LSR

and for wind gusts in our region

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=63501&source=0

 what a storm wish the blizzard would have hit here personally but no ice which is good! Looking in the long range I see several signs that the unexpected cold and frequent snow of the winter will turn into more of a typical la-nina pattern around here meaning warm for the mid-south with cold over the northwest and more frequent rains but that is still 2 weeks away. Earlier this week I suggested while quite a few of the models were dry for Friday night and Saturday that would see periods of snow as a low tracking up the east coast would correct west with time on the models. This appears the case as an upper low will track from Texas into eastern Kentucky with one region of snow northwest of the track while the main surface low is along the east coast. Overall I expect .1-.3 qpf to fall a nice blend of the wet NAM the drier GFS and the SREF from Friday into Saturday leads to high confidence. Light snow should develop late Friday afternoon with steady snow Friday night into Saturday. It may start out as rain for a hour or two Friday but quickly change to snow withaccumulations from 1-3 inches any track and strength change with the upper low could result in adjusting of snow totals.

– I’m thinking regions east of I-75 see some mixing with rain at times early friday evening but still I think getting to an inch is likely. Any 3 inch totals should be isolated where precip falls as all snow just to the northwest of the upper low track.

I have an 8:00 am class on tuesdays and thursdays so the updates will be earlier the downside is see only half the story with the 00z runs.

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6 Responses to “FIRST CALL: light snow friday night and saturday”

  1. mitchg Says:

    00z gfs would require a lowering of temperatures in the 14 day for much of next week.

  2. mitch Says:

    12z gfs really trying to go the big storm threat i’ve been suggesting for next week. only .5 liquid but snow ratios may it a 6+ snowfall.

  3. james Says:

    Next Wed. and Thur.?

  4. mitch Says:

    major winter storm middle of next week looking likely could be the big snow we’ve wanted for some time.

  5. mitch Says:

    I see 3 possibile tracks with the storm one that cuts west of the mountains one that cuts just east of the mountains and a third up the east coast.

    track 1- hvy snow texas to ark to west ky/tn to southern oh to pit
    track 2- hvy snow from texas to ark to tn to ky up the spine of the apps
    track 3- hvy snow across the deep south and east of the apps lighter snow for us.

    the NAO suggests track 2-3 more likely.

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