2 snow threats on deck

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I’ll recap the historic winter storm later today.  However my current line of thought for these two events suggest more accumulating snows on the way with the threat for a big storm here monday night. 

the first one will be similar to last weeks system once again the modeling is having difficulty with the upper air feature in recent runs but is now seeing a secondary period of precipitation due to the upper low well to the west of the main low track up the east coast this system should be weaker but colder.

friday morning you can see the upper feature in texas which will move northeast and deelvop precipitation friday night for the region.

NAM fri am 500 mb

this upper level feature moves northeast friday night with a surface low going up the east coast the gfs is now showing this.

right now there could be mixing issues for the eastern regions but for right now thinking mainly snow.

GFS qpf  fri-sat

NAM qpf  fri-sat

this would be a wet snow with typical 10:1 ratios.

the weekend will be sesoanbily chilly. However the Monday-Tuesday system really has drawn my intrest. Modeling is showing from .5-1.5 qpf with this storm. the ecmwf is mainly rain changing to snow at the end my take is this model is overdone with WAA and to strong with the low. The GFS and cmc are mainly snow. An arcitc front moves into the region Monday with low preseure forming along the front isentropic lift should lead to precipitation delevoping in the cold sector and be heavy at times. behind the front a dramitc temperature drop is expected to about 15 or so by Tuesday morning. Precipitation should deelvop Monday and last into Tuesday. The main intrest lies from the hazardus blowing snow may pose as more wind is likely in addtion to increasing snow ratios.

GFS qpf mon-Tue

 

Right now I’d say 6 inches or more is a good bet northwest of the low track. It should be noted that includes temperatures going into the 40’s Monday with some rain at the start. on the GFS and CMC  that is our region on the 12z ECMWF that is north of the Ohio river.

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4 Responses to “2 snow threats on deck”

  1. mitchg Says:

    the cmc goes for a foot of snow monday and tuesday regionwide with falling temperatures and blowing snow. nogaps and ukmet taking a southern route with the track as well. right now I think that is sound given arctic air invading if so we could very well get a 6-12 inch snowfall for our region stay tuned.

  2. james Says:

    Lock in the cmc right now! 🙂

  3. marsha Says:

    Mitch do you hink Morgan Co will get much snow in the next few days?

  4. mitchg Says:

    actually james the hpc went with the 00z cmc in there forecast today going against the 12z gfs and ecmwf.

    marsha i will post what is likely to be a regionwide 1-3 first call later tonight for fri night.

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