long range: new snow duel and western trend for this weekend’s system as expected

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well here some pics from our snow duel in RI Lexington had a 12-0 lead in inches of snow, I have raised a white flag on this one after several snows have clocked the region. thanks to my mother Lois Gaines for sending these pics from snowy RI.

now onto a new snow duel for those who are already in a negative mood for the lack of snow. we’re dueling Denver, CO now

Lexington, KY 23.8

Denver,CO 12.1

we have almost a 12 inch lead on the city of Denver. However a major word of caution as Denver can get some big snows in the spring. the good news is the threats for accumulating snow are better here in the next week than Denver.

My line of thinking stays the same the modeling will trend west for Friday night and Saturday this should mean a good portion of the region sees several inches of snow.

– the low departs Wednesday with gusty winds from the nw with temperatures falling into the upper 20’s to mid 30’s and remaining steady with scattered flurries. we clear out Wednesday night with lows in the mid 10’s.

– Thursday will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 30’s with lows in the upper 10’s Thursday night. The much colder air to our north is due to an extensive snow and ice cover.

– Friday should an increase in clouds with snow likely by friday night through Saturday even the GFS which has been furthest east with this system now is correcting west and has over .25 qpf for se ky. Highs Friday should be in the mid 30’s with lows Friday night near 20 with slick spots a concern. Once again I expect further westward corrections with the low track putting most of the region in a favorable position for several inches of snow.  

GFS QPF

the DGEX has a nice 4 inch snow for the region with the nogaps, jma and cmc following along.  I have a medium to high confidence of this outcome given the modeled 500 mb pattern which has been supporting the westward trends in modeling.

We warm-up a bit early next week followed by an arcitc front with a wave of low pressure this could feature an area of low pressure with snow or rain changing to snow. followed by most likely the last arctic blast of the winter.

the groundhog looks to see a partial shadow on Wednesday and will be able to come out around valentine’s day this year with aid from the long range gfs and euro showing the se ridge making a late appearance this winter. Yup this means winter ends early with a new storm track from the west coast into the northern plains.

14 day will be updated shortly for the full 14 days.

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3 Responses to “long range: new snow duel and western trend for this weekend’s system as expected”

  1. mitchg Says:

    really like the ideas put forth by the 00z cmc run for saturday. snow overspreads the region friday night with snow most of saturday.

  2. mitchg Says:

    12z cmc backs up that 00z run nicely. ECMWF showing nice snow swath saturday morning.

  3. mitchg Says:

    00z nam showing 3-5 for parts of the region friday night.

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