winter storm watch far north ky

by

A winter storm watch has been issued for far northern KY.  I could see ice accumulation under 1/4 inch by Tuesday morning. As is usual with ice events it will depend on how much WAA streams north and how long the low level cold can linger.

1. On Monday a storm forms over the southern Rockies along an arctic boundary our region will be south of the boundary with light rain showers likely during the day and highs from the 50’s in the south to the 30’s north which presents the threat for ice Monday night into Tuesday. I actually think Tuesday will be dry in most places with some sun strong WAA will temps to climb close to 50 north and in the 60’s south Tuesday. This leads to a band of rain and storms with the low pressure Tuesday night which i could see containing a squall line of thunderstorms from AL into TN and perhaps even southern KY, gusty winds will be the main threat with an isolated tornado not ruled out due to high shear. overall rainfall for this event mon-Tue should be from 1 to perhaps 2 inches.

Let’s take a look at the NAM timeline of this storm

Tuesday noon

Tuesday 6 pm

Tuesday night  midnight

Wednesday morning

I also expect winds to 30 mph with the frontal passage Tuesday night. Flurries may fall on Wednesday with cooler conditions.

The main chance for snow comes from a secondary low for fri-sun. I expect modeling to come further north and west with time for this feature with the exception of the 12z cmc and ecmwf. In my view the upper air pattern argues for low pressure to form off the texas coast friday and move into the southeast saturday and into the mid-atlantic Sunday and the models near the southeast coast will correct north and west.

Advertisements

5 Responses to “winter storm watch far north ky”

  1. Eric Says:

    I have read your blog mitch and cbs blog for over 3 years now. I havent been able to comment on chris blog for a while now, it allways says my session as time out and re type the sercuirty code. Whats up with that, have i been baned or what? Any how mitch u do a good job and i hope to continue reading your thoughts on this blog and cbs. And try and bring us a old school storm before winter is out lol

  2. marsha Says:

    Eric go to kyweathercenter.com and try that

  3. tornadolarkin Says:

    Mitch, I could see a line of severe storms effecting a lot of cky earlly Wednesday. Check out the NAM’s mid and low level jets.

  4. mitchg Says:

    freezing rain adv for 1-64 counties. this may lead to slick spots.

  5. marsha Says:

    Mitch where are you??????

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: