not giving myself high marks on last forecast

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this was either  a bust or surprise snow no middle ground and a forecast nightmare. Looking at the many mistakes on my near failing report card for this storm I see in some spots where I should have seen things. Throughout the week the trend wasn’t west in the low track it was the modeling picking up on the upper low.

1. the upper low was trending northwest a clear giveaway southeast KY would stay warmer longer

2. the original forecast worked better than the updates  it’s like changing an answer on a test usually not good outcome

3. still have having a difficult time grasping mesoscale banding setups with heavy snow, already looking forward to the 2/17 lecture in mesoscale class on this!

However model performance was also very poor i will say the CMC and JMA did better than usual.

moving on we have a FIRST CALL on a clipper for friday.

– should be a week one once again it’s a week system diving in from the northwest with WAA to the south of the track and light snow on the northern edges. this should track southeast through eastern Kentucky friday morning. Northeast of Lexington a 6 hour period of light snow may leave 1-2 inches of snow with 10:1 ratios.  As usual the NAM overdoes qpf.  This may create slick spots for the Friday morning commute. There should be a sharp- cutoff further southwest with light snow showers and sprinkles.

In the long range we have the 12z euro calling for a lakes cutter on Tuesday. the remainder of the models through 00z gfs call for a sloppy mix across the region. I think the arctic high over the upper midwest will prevent a lakes cutter. However that does not mean a low still cuts up into the region providing mainly a cold rain before transferring to the east coast and we get little snow. Of course there’s still a track to our southeast in which case snow. so my thinking for a while for a winter storm around the 1st holds.

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9 Responses to “not giving myself high marks on last forecast”

  1. Doug Says:

    Mitch you and Chris are the only weather sites I look at about 95% of the time you guys do a hellva job so don’t beat yourself up just keep up the good work, thank you for what you do.

    • Matt Says:

      Doug, I’m right there with you. Mitch and Chris do an excellent job, and their sites are the ONLY ones I look at for forecasting. Great insight and top notch forecasting by both! Keep up the great work Mitch!!!

  2. james Says:

    Mitch, you do a good job at forcasting. If anyone got this past storm correct, it was pure luck. Looking forward to tracking the one for next week.

  3. mitch Says:

    for those wanting like me wanting more snow you should note the ECMWF is much further south with the low track and would imply a snow event for tue-wed. However ironically it had the heaviest snow in TN.

  4. mitchg Says:

    looking at 12z runs so far keeping the snow map the same on the clipper.

  5. mitchg Says:

    concern for freezing rain mext week increasing.

  6. Vinny Says:

    Mitch:

    Euro did well lest out or not so much?

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