updated forecast

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update: GFS BUFKIT came in with 8 inches in somerset and 9 inches in jackson thus will raise the 4-8 back to 4-10.

For tonight’s update I’m now favoring the NAM solution. There is no more convective feedback and the NAM is picking up well on the band of snow northwest of the upper low which is of primary concern. Once again this time omega forcing (lift) will occur unlike last time when it was south of our region I expect there to plenty of it in the region this go around coupled with a frontal boundary in place and an upper low to our south put our region in a favorable zone for the development of precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Some of the precipitation may become banded and heavy at times as well. Also just to the north of the low track i can’t rule out a clap of thunder around the Somerset region further east.  Also the upper low may come enough northwest to nudge some warmer air into southeast KY.

– light rain develops tomorrow evening with temperatures around 40 then fall into the mid 30’s we see a midnight changeover in Bowling Green and Lexington further precipitation will develop after midnight and change from rain to snow overnight. I’m slowing the changeover over eastern Kentucky. GFS and NAM are fairly similar on the thermal profiles with this event.

– I’ve also tightened the gradient between little and heavy snowfall

– Somerset should be the big winner based on the set-up

by the  way i still expect another storm next week

– we warm up this weekend with a week wave Sunday/Monday with a frontal passage

– mid week another stronger storm travels along the front with our region in the cold

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6 Responses to “updated forecast”

  1. Mike S Says:

    Somerset ? Sweet spot? No way…lol….I’ve never heard those words

  2. rlhopkinswx Says:

    I like where you are at on totals. About my thoughts after this evenings runs. Going to update my maps once I see the 6z run of the NAM.

  3. marsha Says:

    do you think morgan co will see higher total this storm has tired me out

  4. mitch Says:

    winter storm watches up for most of the region this is likely a bit to far west though.

  5. mitch Says:

    staying the course after a look at the 12z models so far.

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